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Dominant Ham-Kam run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Haugesund.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ham-Kam beat Haugesund 5-0 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 2.07 xG and Haugesund 1.22 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Ham-Kam beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Haugesund landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.98 / defence 0.99 against Haugesund attack 0.90 / defence 1.18, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 57% | Draw 22% | Haugesund 22%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 48%, Haugesund 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ham-Kam's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.

Haugesund's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Ham-Kam arrived the stronger side — 1.16 PPG against 0.74. That form edge translated into the three points. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line. Haugesund (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 2.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights