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Poisson rates Ham-Kam at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ham-Kam vs Haugesund encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Haugesund travel to Briskeby Arena to take on Ham-Kam. The game is scheduled for Sunday 23 November 2025, 13:30 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Ham-Kam stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Ham-Kam's home record at Briskeby Arena: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Haugesund — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Haugesund have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.

Ham-Kam are in the better shape of the two on current Eliteserien data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Ham-Kam, 2 for Haugesund and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Jul 2025, ended 3–0 with Ham-Kam winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Ham-Kam in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Haugesund in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 47% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 48% versus Haugesund 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 48% | Haugesund 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 2.07 xG and Haugesund 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.980 / defence 0.994 | Haugesund attack 0.897 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.781 / away 1.370. Data: 58 Ham-Kam games / 58 Haugesund games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 57% | Draw 22% | Haugesund 22%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 1.75 | Draw 4.55 | Haugesund 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Ham-Kam (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Ham-Kam are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 80% | Haugesund 40% BTTS from recent games.

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