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Ham-Kam and Fredrikstad share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 14, as Ham-Kam and Fredrikstad drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.45 xG and Fredrikstad 1.18 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.87 / defence 1.13 against Fredrikstad attack 0.82 / defence 1.03, drawn from 43/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 43% | Draw 26% | Fredrikstad 31%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 42%, Fredrikstad 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ham-Kam's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Fredrikstad's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights