Ham-Kam 1-1 Fredrikstad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Briskeby Arena plays host to Ham-Kam versus Fredrikstad in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 20 July 2025 at 18:15 UTC.
Current Form
Ham-Kam's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Briskeby Arena, Ham-Kam have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Fredrikstad have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fredrikstad have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Ham-Kam, 2 for Fredrikstad and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Fredrikstad winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Fredrikstad half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 44% versus Fredrikstad 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 42% | Fredrikstad 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.45 xG and Fredrikstad 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.866 / defence 1.131 | Fredrikstad attack 0.824 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.267. Data: 43 Ham-Kam games / 45 Fredrikstad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 43% | Draw 26% | Fredrikstad 31%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Fredrikstad 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ham-Kam at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Ham-Kam 50% | Fredrikstad 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Jul 2025, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 43% | Draw 26% | Fredrikstad 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Ham-Kam 1.45 / Fredrikstad 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.866 / def 1.131 | Fredrikstad attack 0.824 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.616 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Fredrikstad xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 20 July 2025 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad?
Ham-Kam 1 - 1 Fredrikstad.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad part of?
Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 43% chance of winning, Fredrikstad a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Ham-Kam and Fredrikstad will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Fredrikstad?
Record (2 meetings): Ham-Kam 0W | Draws 0 | Fredrikstad 2W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Fredrikstad in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Fredrikstad (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ham-Kam's attack rating (0.87) and Fredrikstad's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fredrikstad's attack (0.82x) against Ham-Kam's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 43/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
43%
2.31
26%
3.85
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.63
1.18
Fredrikstad xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
13%
7.53
7%
13.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.3 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Fredrikstad expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.18 for Fredrikstad, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ham-Kam's recent record stands at 11W 13D 19L from 43 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fredrikstad, meanwhile, have gone 19W 12D 12L across 43 games — 1.60 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Fredrikstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fredrikstad by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ham-Kam heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Ham-Kam have managed 6W 6D 8L from 20 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fredrikstad's away record stands at 7W 5D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Fredrikstad are on 1.30 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Fredrikstad in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Blended
Fredrikstad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Fredrikstad in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 11W 13D 19L in their last 43 games (1.07 PPG), while Fredrikstad have gone 19W 12D 12L in their last 43 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Fredrikstad away?
Fredrikstad's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.20 PPG; Fredrikstad away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Ham-Kam or Fredrikstad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ham-Kam have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Fredrikstad in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Fredrikstad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Ham-Kam
2
Draws
3
Fredrikstad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Fredrikstad?
From 5 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 0, Fredrikstad have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Fredrikstad last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Fredrikstad 2-1 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Ham-Kam and Fredrikstad?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 45%, Fredrikstad 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Ham-Kam) and 40% (Fredrikstad).
On the defensive side: Fredrikstad in 35%; Ham-Kam have failed to score in 35% of games; Fredrikstad in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Fredrikstad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Fredrikstad?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 40% of Fredrikstad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Ham-Kam's recent games and 40% of Fredrikstad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ham-Kam and Fredrikstad tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Fredrikstad in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ham-Kam and Fredrikstad share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 14, as Ham-Kam and Fredrikstad drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.45 xG and Fredrikstad 1.18 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.87 / defence 1.13 against Fredrikstad attack 0.82 / defence 1.03, drawn from 43/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 43% | Draw 26% | Fredrikstad 31%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 42%, Fredrikstad 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (43 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Fredrikstad's trading profile (43 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.