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Poisson model rates Ham-Kam at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ham-Kam vs Fredrikstad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Full Analysis

Briskeby Arena plays host to Ham-Kam versus Fredrikstad in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 20 July 2025 at 18:15 UTC.

Current Form

Ham-Kam's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Briskeby Arena, Ham-Kam have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.

Fredrikstad have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Fredrikstad have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Ham-Kam, 2 for Fredrikstad and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Fredrikstad winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

Fredrikstad half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 44% versus Fredrikstad 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 42% | Fredrikstad 40%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.45 xG and Fredrikstad 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.866 / defence 1.131 | Fredrikstad attack 0.824 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.616 / away 1.267. Data: 43 Ham-Kam games / 45 Fredrikstad games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 43% | Draw 26% | Fredrikstad 31%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Fredrikstad 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ham-Kam at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Ham-Kam 50% | Fredrikstad 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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