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Ham-Kam and Brann share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 12, as Ham-Kam and Brann drew 1-1 in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.64 xG and Brann 1.59 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.96 / defence 1.13 against Brann attack 1.00 / defence 1.10, drawn from 41/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 39% | Draw 24% | Brann 37%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 44%, Brann 66%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ham-Kam's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Brann's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights