Ham-Kam 1-3 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ham-Kam face Bodo/Glimt.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Ham-Kam and Bodo/Glimt meet at Briskeby Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 August 2025 at 13:30 UTC.

Form

Ham-Kam (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ham-Kam's home record at Briskeby Arena: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Bodo/Glimt have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bodo/Glimt are 0.90 PPG clear of Ham-Kam in recent Eliteserien fixtures (2.20 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head ledger leans to Bodo/Glimt, who have claimed 4 wins from 7 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 2 draws.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 0–3 with Bodo/Glimt winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bodo/Glimt have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading

Ham-Kam half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

Bodo/Glimt half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 44% versus Bodo/Glimt 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 42% | Bodo/Glimt 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.13 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.851 / defence 1.051 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.252 / defence 0.807. League average goals — home 1.638 / away 1.380. Bodo/Glimt have an above-average attack strength of 1.252 — the away xG of 1.82 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 45 Ham-Kam games / 46 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 23% | Draw 23% | Bodo/Glimt 53%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 4.35 | Draw 4.35 | Bodo/Glimt 1.89. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bodo/Glimt at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 60% | Bodo/Glimt 50% BTTS from recent games.

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