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Shock result as Tromso defy the odds to beat Fredrikstad 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tromso beat Fredrikstad 0-1 at Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.48 xG and Tromso 1.47 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fredrikstad fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 0.97 / defence 0.81 against Tromso attack 1.31 / defence 0.96, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 37% | Draw 26% | Tromso 37%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Tromso win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 40%, Tromso 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fredrikstad's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Tromso's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Tromso winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Tromso (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights