Fredrikstad 0-1 Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fredrikstad at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fredrikstad vs Tromso encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tromso make the trip to Fredrikstad Stadion to face Fredrikstad in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 June 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fredrikstad have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Fredrikstad at Fredrikstad Stadion this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fredrikstad Stadion.
Tromso's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Tromso have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Fredrikstad. A 1.10 PPG lead over Tromso (2.00 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Fredrikstad, 1 for Tromso and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2024, ended 0–3 with Tromso winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Fredrikstad goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Tromso goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 40% versus Tromso 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 40% | Tromso 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.48 xG and Tromso 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 0.967 / defence 0.807 | Tromso attack 1.307 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.390. Tromso have an above-average attack strength of 1.307 — the away xG of 1.47 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 41 Fredrikstad games / 40 Tromso games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 37% | Draw 26% | Tromso 37%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Tromso 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. This conflicts with form data: Fredrikstad 40% | Tromso 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Jun 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 37% | Draw 26% | Tromso 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Fredrikstad 1.48 / Tromso 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 0.967 / def 0.807 | Tromso attack 1.307 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.390 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Tromso xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fredrikstad vs Tromso kick off?
Fredrikstad vs Tromso kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 29 June 2025 at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What was the final score in Fredrikstad vs Tromso?
Fredrikstad 0 - 1 Tromso.
Where is Fredrikstad vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs Tromso part of?
Fredrikstad vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 37% chance of winning, Tromso a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Fredrikstad and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will Fredrikstad vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Tromso?
Record (2 meetings): Fredrikstad 0W | Draws 1 | Tromso 1W.
What form are Fredrikstad and Tromso in?
Fredrikstad (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Tromso (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Fredrikstad's attack rating (0.97) and Tromso's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Tromso's attack (1.31x) against Fredrikstad's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
37%
2.67
26%
3.88
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
2.95
1.47
Tromso xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
23%
4.34
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
9%
11.59
8%
11.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.4 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.4 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 1.47 for Tromso, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs Tromso?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fredrikstad's recent record stands at 14W 9D 7L from 30 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-W in the last five.
Tromso, meanwhile, have gone 9W 6D 15L across 30 games — 1.10 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fredrikstad by 0.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Tromso heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fredrikstad have managed 7W 6D 2L from 15 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tromso's away record stands at 4W 2D 9L across 15 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fredrikstad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fredrikstad are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Tromso are on 1.13 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Tromso in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Current Season
Tromso
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fredrikstad and Tromso in coming into this match?
Fredrikstad have gone 14W 9D 7L in their last 30 games (1.70 PPG), while Tromso have gone 9W 6D 15L in their last 30 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fredrikstad at home or Tromso away?
Fredrikstad's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fredrikstad at home: 1.80 PPG; Tromso away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Fredrikstad or Tromso been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Tromso in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Tromso won 4-0 on 15 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fredrikstad have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Tromso — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Fredrikstad
2
Draws
3
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Tromso?
From 5 meetings on record, Fredrikstad have won 0, Tromso have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Tromso 4-0 Fredrikstad.
Who has won more matches between Fredrikstad and Tromso?
Tromso have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fredrikstad see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Tromso see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 40% (Fredrikstad) and 27% (Tromso) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Fredrikstad) and 40% (Tromso).
On the defensive side: Fredrikstad keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Tromso in 33%; Fredrikstad have failed to score in 33% of games; Tromso in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fredrikstad play Tromso?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Fredrikstad's recent matches and 27% of Tromso's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fredrikstad vs Tromso usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Fredrikstad's recent games and 40% of Tromso's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Tromso defy the odds to beat Fredrikstad 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso beat Fredrikstad 0-1 at Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.48 xG and Tromso 1.47 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fredrikstad fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 0.97 / defence 0.81 against Tromso attack 1.31 / defence 0.96, drawn from 41/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 37% | Draw 26% | Tromso 37%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Tromso win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 40%, Tromso 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fredrikstad's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Tromso's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.10. Form was overturned, with Tromso winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Tromso (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.