🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Fredrikstad edge out Stromsgodset 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fredrikstad beat Stromsgodset 3-2 at Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 2.04 xG and Stromsgodset 1.06 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Fredrikstad beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stromsgodset outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 0.97 / defence 0.85 against Stromsgodset attack 0.99 / defence 1.30, drawn from 46/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 60% | Draw 21% | Stromsgodset 19%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 39%, Stromsgodset 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fredrikstad's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Stromsgodset's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights