Fredrikstad 3-2 Stromsgodset – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fredrikstad at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fredrikstad vs Stromsgodset encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fredrikstad host Stromsgodset at Fredrikstad Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 25 July 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fredrikstad stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Fredrikstad Stadion, Fredrikstad have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Fredrikstad are significantly better at Fredrikstad Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stromsgodset have recorded 1W 0D 9L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Stromsgodset's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
On current form, Fredrikstad have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (0.90 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Fredrikstad, 1 for Stromsgodset and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with Stromsgodset winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Fredrikstad in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 41% versus Stromsgodset 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 39% | Stromsgodset 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 2.04 xG and Stromsgodset 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 0.972 / defence 0.851 | Stromsgodset attack 0.986 / defence 1.303. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.264. Stromsgodset bring a strong defensive rating of 1.303 — this is suppressing Fredrikstad's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Fredrikstad games / 44 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 60% | Draw 21% | Stromsgodset 19%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Stromsgodset 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Fredrikstad (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fredrikstad are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Fredrikstad 30% | Stromsgodset 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs Stromsgodset | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 25 Jul 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 60% | Draw 21% | Stromsgodset 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 57% | xG Fredrikstad 2.04 / Stromsgodset 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 0.972 / def 0.851 | Stromsgodset attack 0.986 / def 1.303 | league avg home 1.610 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.04
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Stromsgodset xG
57%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fredrikstad vs Stromsgodset kick off?
Fredrikstad vs Stromsgodset kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 25 July 2025 at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What was the final score in Fredrikstad vs Stromsgodset?
Fredrikstad 3 - 2 Stromsgodset.
Where is Fredrikstad vs Stromsgodset being played?
The match is being played at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs Stromsgodset part of?
Fredrikstad vs Stromsgodset is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs Stromsgodset?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 60% chance of winning, Stromsgodset a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Stromsgodset?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Fredrikstad and Stromsgodset will score (BTTS).
Will Fredrikstad vs Stromsgodset have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Stromsgodset?
Record (2 meetings): Fredrikstad 1W | Draws 0 | Stromsgodset 1W.
What form are Fredrikstad and Stromsgodset in?
Fredrikstad (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. Stromsgodset (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fredrikstad's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Stromsgodset's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.04. The same calculation in reverse, Stromsgodset's attack versus Fredrikstad's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
60%
1.67
21%
4.72
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.04
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
3.10
1.06
Stromsgodset xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.72
21%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
13%
7.69
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
2%
40.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs Stromsgodset?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.0%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and Stromsgodset expected to score?
The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 1.06 for Stromsgodset, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs Stromsgodset?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fredrikstad come into this having played 44 games, going 19W 13D 12L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Fredrikstad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Stromsgodset sit at 1.00 PPG from 44 outings (12W 8D 24L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Stromsgodset is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fredrikstad carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Stromsgodset — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Fredrikstad's home form reads 12W 6D 4L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Stromsgodset have taken 0.86 points per game from 22 outings (5W 4D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fredrikstad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fredrikstad are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Stromsgodset are on 1.11 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Defensively: Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Blended
Stromsgodset
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fredrikstad and Stromsgodset in coming into this match?
Fredrikstad have gone 19W 13D 12L in their last 44 games (1.59 PPG), while Stromsgodset have gone 12W 8D 24L in their last 44 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fredrikstad at home or Stromsgodset away?
Fredrikstad's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fredrikstad at home: 1.91 PPG; Stromsgodset away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Fredrikstad or Stromsgodset been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Stromsgodset in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 19 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Fredrikstad go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 May 2024, when Fredrikstad won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fredrikstad's record when hosting Stromsgodset specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Fredrikstad
0
Draws
1
Stromsgodset
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Stromsgodset?
From 4 meetings on record, Fredrikstad have won 3, Stromsgodset have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and Stromsgodset last play each other?
They last met on 19 October 2025, when Stromsgodset 0-3 Fredrikstad.
Who has won more matches between Fredrikstad and Stromsgodset?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fredrikstad see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Stromsgodset are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fredrikstad 36%, Stromsgodset 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Fredrikstad) and 59% (Stromsgodset).
On the defensive side: Fredrikstad keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Fredrikstad have failed to score in 32% of games; Stromsgodset in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / Stromsgodset away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fredrikstad play Stromsgodset?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Fredrikstad's recent matches and 46% of Stromsgodset's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fredrikstad vs Stromsgodset usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Fredrikstad's recent games and 59% of Stromsgodset's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fredrikstad and Stromsgodset tend to score early?
Fredrikstad have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Stromsgodset in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fredrikstad edge out Stromsgodset 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fredrikstad beat Stromsgodset 3-2 at Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 2.04 xG and Stromsgodset 1.06 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Fredrikstad beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stromsgodset outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 0.97 / defence 0.85 against Stromsgodset attack 0.99 / defence 1.30, drawn from 46/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 60% | Draw 21% | Stromsgodset 19%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 39%, Stromsgodset 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fredrikstad's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Stromsgodset's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stromsgodset (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.