🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Fredrikstad at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fredrikstad vs Stromsgodset encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Fredrikstad host Stromsgodset at Fredrikstad Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 25 July 2025 at 18:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Fredrikstad stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Fredrikstad Stadion, Fredrikstad have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Fredrikstad are significantly better at Fredrikstad Stadion than their overall form suggests.

Across all Eliteserien games this season, Stromsgodset have recorded 1W 0D 9L from 10 outings — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. This season is still relatively young for Stromsgodset, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Stromsgodset's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

On current form, Fredrikstad have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (0.90 vs 0.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Fredrikstad, 1 for Stromsgodset and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with Stromsgodset winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Fredrikstad in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).

Stromsgodset in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 41% versus Stromsgodset 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 39% | Stromsgodset 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 2.04 xG and Stromsgodset 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 0.972 / defence 0.851 | Stromsgodset attack 0.986 / defence 1.303. League average goals — home 1.610 / away 1.264. Stromsgodset bring a strong defensive rating of 1.303 — this is suppressing Fredrikstad's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Fredrikstad games / 44 Stromsgodset games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 60% | Draw 21% | Stromsgodset 19%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Stromsgodset 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Fredrikstad (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Fredrikstad are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.10 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Fredrikstad 30% | Stromsgodset 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights