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Rosenborg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Fredrikstad.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rosenborg beat Fredrikstad 0-2 at Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.60 xG and Rosenborg 0.83 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Fredrikstad fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Rosenborg outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 1.17 / defence 0.69 against Rosenborg attack 0.89 / defence 0.89, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 56% | Draw 25% | Rosenborg 19%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Rosenborg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 40%, Rosenborg 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fredrikstad's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Rosenborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fredrikstad 1.70 PPG, Rosenborg 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rosenborg win broke the near-deadlock. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rosenborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights