Fredrikstad 0-2 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fredrikstad at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fredrikstad Stadion plays host to Fredrikstad versus Rosenborg in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Wednesday 28 May 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fredrikstad have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fredrikstad have posted 5W 4D 1L at Fredrikstad Stadion — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fredrikstad Stadion.
Rosenborg (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Rosenborg away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 2.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Fredrikstad, 1 for Rosenborg and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Rosenborg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Fredrikstad goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Rosenborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 40% versus Rosenborg 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 40% | Rosenborg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.60 xG and Rosenborg 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 1.172 / defence 0.691 | Rosenborg attack 0.889 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.348. Fredrikstad's defence rating of 0.691 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Fredrikstad games / 39 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 56% | Draw 25% | Rosenborg 19%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Rosenborg 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Fredrikstad (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fredrikstad at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Fredrikstad 40% | Rosenborg 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 May 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 56% | Draw 25% | Rosenborg 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 45% | xG Fredrikstad 1.60 / Rosenborg 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 1.172 / def 0.691 | Rosenborg attack 0.889 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Rosenborg xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg kick off?
Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 28 May 2025 at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What was the final score in Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg?
Fredrikstad 0 - 2 Rosenborg.
Where is Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg part of?
Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 56% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Fredrikstad and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Rosenborg?
Record (3 meetings): Fredrikstad 0W | Draws 2 | Rosenborg 1W.
What form are Fredrikstad and Rosenborg in?
Fredrikstad (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Rosenborg (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fredrikstad's attack at 1.17x the league average against Rosenborg's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (0.89x) against Fredrikstad's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 38/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
56%
1.79
25%
4.01
19%
5.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
2.43
0.83
Rosenborg xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
5.18
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
24%
4.11
4%
25.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 11.7 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 0.83 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fredrikstad's recent record stands at 14W 9D 7L from 30 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-W in the last five.
Rosenborg, meanwhile, have gone 16W 5D 9L across 30 games — 1.77 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for Fredrikstad against 1.77 for Rosenborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fredrikstad have managed 7W 6D 2L from 15 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rosenborg's away record stands at 6W 3D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fredrikstad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fredrikstad are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.73 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg in 60%.
Defensively: Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Current Season
Rosenborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fredrikstad and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Fredrikstad have gone 14W 9D 7L in their last 30 games (1.70 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 16W 5D 9L in their last 30 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fredrikstad at home or Rosenborg away?
Fredrikstad's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fredrikstad at home: 1.80 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Fredrikstad or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 27 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Rosenborg go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rosenborg won 4-0 on 27 Jul 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fredrikstad have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Fredrikstad
2
Draws
3
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Rosenborg?
From 5 meetings on record, Fredrikstad have won 0, Rosenborg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2026, when Rosenborg 4-0 Fredrikstad.
Who has won more matches between Fredrikstad and Rosenborg?
Rosenborg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fredrikstad see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fredrikstad 40%, Rosenborg 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Fredrikstad) and 67% (Rosenborg).
On the defensive side: Fredrikstad keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Fredrikstad have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fredrikstad play Rosenborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Fredrikstad's recent matches and 60% of Rosenborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fredrikstad vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Fredrikstad's recent games and 67% of Rosenborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fredrikstad and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Fredrikstad have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rosenborg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Fredrikstad.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rosenborg beat Fredrikstad 0-2 at Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.60 xG and Rosenborg 0.83 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Fredrikstad fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Rosenborg outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 1.17 / defence 0.69 against Rosenborg attack 0.89 / defence 0.89, drawn from 38/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 56% | Draw 25% | Rosenborg 19%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Rosenborg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 40%, Rosenborg 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fredrikstad's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rosenborg's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fredrikstad 1.70 PPG, Rosenborg 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rosenborg win broke the near-deadlock. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rosenborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.