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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Fredrikstad edge out KFUM Oslo 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fredrikstad beat KFUM Oslo 1-0 at Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.84 xG and KFUM Oslo 0.72 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fredrikstad fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 1.23 / defence 0.73 against KFUM Oslo attack 0.71 / defence 0.97, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 63% | Draw 25% | KFUM Oslo 12%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 40%, KFUM Oslo 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fredrikstad's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

KFUM Oslo's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. KFUM Oslo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights