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Poisson rates Fredrikstad at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Fredrikstad and KFUM Oslo meet at Fredrikstad Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Friday 16 May 2025 at 17:00 UTC.

Current Form

Fredrikstad's overall Eliteserien record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Fredrikstad's home record at Fredrikstad Stadion: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fredrikstad Stadion.

KFUM Oslo have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

KFUM Oslo's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Form favours the hosts. Fredrikstad's 2.00 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of KFUM Oslo's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fredrikstad lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Fredrikstad — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

KFUM Oslo — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 40% versus KFUM Oslo 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 40% | KFUM Oslo 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.84 xG and KFUM Oslo 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 1.225 / defence 0.729 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.708 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.397. Fredrikstad's defence rating of 0.729 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 Fredrikstad games / 36 KFUM Oslo games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 63% | Draw 25% | KFUM Oslo 12%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 1.59 | Draw 4.00 | KFUM Oslo 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Fredrikstad (63%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Fredrikstad as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fredrikstad 40% | KFUM Oslo 50% BTTS from recent games.

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