Fredrikstad 1-0 KFUM Oslo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fredrikstad at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fredrikstad and KFUM Oslo meet at Fredrikstad Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Friday 16 May 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fredrikstad's overall Eliteserien record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Fredrikstad's home record at Fredrikstad Stadion: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Eliteserien appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fredrikstad Stadion.
KFUM Oslo have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
KFUM Oslo's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Fredrikstad's 2.00 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of KFUM Oslo's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fredrikstad lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Aug 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Fredrikstad — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
KFUM Oslo — key trading statistics (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 40% versus KFUM Oslo 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 40% | KFUM Oslo 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.84 xG and KFUM Oslo 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 1.225 / defence 0.729 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.708 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.397. Fredrikstad's defence rating of 0.729 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 36 Fredrikstad games / 36 KFUM Oslo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 63% | Draw 25% | KFUM Oslo 12%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 1.59 | Draw 4.00 | KFUM Oslo 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Fredrikstad (63%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fredrikstad as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fredrikstad 40% | KFUM Oslo 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 16 May 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 63% | Draw 25% | KFUM Oslo 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 45% | xG Fredrikstad 1.84 / KFUM Oslo 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 1.225 / def 0.729 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.708 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.397 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
0.72
KFUM Oslo xG
45%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo kick off?
Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo kicked off at 17:00 on Friday 16 May 2025 at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What was the final score in Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo?
Fredrikstad 1 - 0 KFUM Oslo.
Where is Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo being played?
The match is being played at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo part of?
Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 63% chance of winning, KFUM Oslo a 12% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Fredrikstad and KFUM Oslo will score (BTTS).
Will Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and KFUM Oslo?
Record (2 meetings): Fredrikstad 1W | Draws 1 | KFUM Oslo 0W.
What form are Fredrikstad and KFUM Oslo in?
Fredrikstad (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. KFUM Oslo (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fredrikstad's attack rating (1.23) and KFUM Oslo's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — KFUM Oslo's attack (0.71x) against Fredrikstad's defence (0.73x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 1-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
63%
1.60
25%
4.01
12%
8.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
2.56
0.72
KFUM Oslo xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
8.03
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
49%
2.06
16%
6.32
Win to Nil
30%
3.28
2%
50.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 10.2 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 9.4 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and KFUM Oslo expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 0.72 for KFUM Oslo, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 30 outings, Fredrikstad have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 14W 9D 7L record — L-D-D-W-W across the most recent five.
KFUM Oslo's form line: 9W 10D 11L from 30 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Fredrikstad are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against KFUM Oslo.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Fredrikstad have posted 1.80 PPG from 15 outings (7W 6D 2L).
On the road, KFUM Oslo have gone 7W 3D 5L from 15 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Fredrikstad are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; KFUM Oslo are on 1.17 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Defensively: Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Current Season
KFUM Oslo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fredrikstad and KFUM Oslo in coming into this match?
Fredrikstad have gone 14W 9D 7L in their last 30 games (1.70 PPG), while KFUM Oslo have gone 9W 10D 11L in their last 30 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fredrikstad at home or KFUM Oslo away?
Fredrikstad's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fredrikstad at home: 1.80 PPG; KFUM Oslo away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Fredrikstad or KFUM Oslo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, KFUM Oslo in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fredrikstad won 1-4 on 12 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fredrikstad have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against KFUM Oslo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Fredrikstad
1
Draws
1
KFUM Oslo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and KFUM Oslo?
From 5 meetings on record, Fredrikstad have won 3, KFUM Oslo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and KFUM Oslo last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Fredrikstad 3-1 KFUM Oslo.
Who has won more matches between Fredrikstad and KFUM Oslo?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fredrikstad see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
KFUM Oslo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fredrikstad 40%, KFUM Oslo 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Fredrikstad) and 47% (KFUM Oslo).
On the defensive side: Fredrikstad keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Fredrikstad have failed to score in 33% of games; KFUM Oslo in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / KFUM Oslo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fredrikstad play KFUM Oslo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Fredrikstad's recent matches and 53% of KFUM Oslo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fredrikstad vs KFUM Oslo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Fredrikstad's recent games and 47% of KFUM Oslo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fredrikstad and KFUM Oslo tend to score early?
Fredrikstad have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, KFUM Oslo in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fredrikstad edge out KFUM Oslo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fredrikstad beat KFUM Oslo 1-0 at Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.84 xG and KFUM Oslo 0.72 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fredrikstad fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 1.23 / defence 0.73 against KFUM Oslo attack 0.71 / defence 0.97, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 63% | Draw 25% | KFUM Oslo 12%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 40%, KFUM Oslo 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fredrikstad's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
KFUM Oslo's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. KFUM Oslo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.