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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fredrikstad and Haugesund share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fredrikstad and Haugesund finished level at 2-2 at Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 2.24 xG and Haugesund 0.74 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Haugesund outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 1.00 / defence 0.90 against Haugesund attack 0.61 / defence 1.36, drawn from 48/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 71% | Draw 18% | Haugesund 10%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 38%, Haugesund 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fredrikstad's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Haugesund's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fredrikstad (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Haugesund (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights