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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam finished level at 1-1 at Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.40 xG and Ham-Kam 1.13 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 0.93 / defence 1.03 against Ham-Kam attack 0.85 / defence 0.88, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 43% | Draw 26% | Ham-Kam 30%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 40%, Ham-Kam 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fredrikstad's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Ham-Kam's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights