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Poisson rates Fredrikstad at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam encounter.

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Full Analysis

Fredrikstad Stadion plays host to Fredrikstad versus Ham-Kam in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 5 October 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Current Form

Fredrikstad's overall Eliteserien record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fredrikstad, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Fredrikstad's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Fredrikstad Stadion this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Ham-Kam have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Ham-Kam's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Fredrikstad, 0 for Ham-Kam and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jul 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Fredrikstad — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Ham-Kam — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 43% versus Ham-Kam 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 40% | Ham-Kam 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.40 xG and Ham-Kam 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 0.928 / defence 1.029 | Ham-Kam attack 0.854 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.290. Data: 53 Fredrikstad games / 53 Ham-Kam games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 43% | Draw 26% | Ham-Kam 30%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Ham-Kam 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Fredrikstad are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fredrikstad if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Fredrikstad 60% | Ham-Kam 30%.

The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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