Fredrikstad 1-1 Ham-Kam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fredrikstad at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Fredrikstad face Ham-Kam.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fredrikstad Stadion plays host to Fredrikstad versus Ham-Kam in Eliteserien (matchday 24). Kick-off: Sunday 5 October 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Fredrikstad's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fredrikstad's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ham-Kam have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Ham-Kam's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Fredrikstad, 0 for Ham-Kam and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.3 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 20 Jul 2025, ended Fredrikstad 1–1 Ham-Kam — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Fredrikstad — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Ham-Kam — key trading statistics (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 43% versus Ham-Kam 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 40% | Ham-Kam 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.40 xG and Ham-Kam 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 0.928 / defence 1.029 | Ham-Kam attack 0.854 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.724 / away 1.290. Data: built from Fredrikstad's last 53 games and Ham-Kam's last 53.
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 43% | Draw 26% | Ham-Kam 30%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 2.32 | Draw 3.78 | Ham-Kam 3.29. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fredrikstad are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fredrikstad if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Fredrikstad 60% (last 10 home games) | Ham-Kam 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 24 | Venue: Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 October 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 43% | Draw 26% | Ham-Kam 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Fredrikstad 1.40 / Ham-Kam 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 0.928 / def 1.029 | Ham-Kam attack 0.854 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.724 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Fredrikstad (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Ham-Kam xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam FAQs
What time does Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam kick off?
Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 5 October 2025 at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What was the final score in Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam?
Fredrikstad 1 - 1 Ham-Kam.
Where is Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam being played?
The match is being played at Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam part of?
Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 24) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 43% chance of winning, Ham-Kam a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fredrikstad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fredrikstad's attack rating (0.93) and Ham-Kam's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ham-Kam's attack (0.85x) against Fredrikstad's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from Fredrikstad's last 53 games and Ham-Kam's last 53 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fredrikstad Win
43%
2.32
26%
3.78
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
2.54
1.13
Ham-Kam xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
25%
4.07
Win to Nil
14%
7.21
7%
13.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.0 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 1.13 for Ham-Kam, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fredrikstad's recent record stands at 22W 16D 15L from 53 games, a 1.55 PPG return, with D-W-D-L-L in the last five.
Ham-Kam, meanwhile, have gone 14W 15D 24L across 53 games — 1.08 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fredrikstad by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ham-Kam heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Fredrikstad have managed 13W 9D 4L from their last 26 home games — 1.85 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ham-Kam's away record stands at 6W 8D 12L across their last 26 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fredrikstad come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fredrikstad are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Ham-Kam are on 1.15 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Defensively: Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
Fredrikstad (Home) vs Ham-Kam (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Fredrikstad
Blended
Ham-Kam
Blended
❓ Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam Form FAQs
What form are Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam in coming into this match?
Fredrikstad have gone 22W 16D 15L in their last 53 games (1.55 PPG), while Ham-Kam have gone 14W 15D 24L in their last 53 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fredrikstad at home or Ham-Kam away?
Fredrikstad's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fredrikstad at home: 1.85 PPG; Ham-Kam away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Fredrikstad or Ham-Kam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fredrikstad have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Ham-Kam in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam, the earliest from July 2024. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 16 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fredrikstad have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ham-Kam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Fredrikstad
2
Draws
0
Ham-Kam
Recent Meetings
❓ Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Fredrikstad have won 3, Ham-Kam have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 May 2026: Fredrikstad 2-1 Ham-Kam.
Who has won more matches between Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam?
Fredrikstad have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fredrikstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fredrikstad 46%, Ham-Kam 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Fredrikstad) and 46% (Ham-Kam).
On the defensive side: Fredrikstad keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Fredrikstad have failed to score in 27% of games; Ham-Kam in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / Ham-Kam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Fredrikstad vs Ham-Kam Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Fredrikstad's recent matches and 42% of Ham-Kam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Fredrikstad's recent games and 46% of Ham-Kam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Fredrikstad's recent matches and 81% of Ham-Kam's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fredrikstad and Ham-Kam finished level at 1-1 at Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.40 xG and Ham-Kam 1.13 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 0.93 / defence 1.03 against Ham-Kam attack 0.85 / defence 0.88, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 43% | Draw 26% | Ham-Kam 30%, with Fredrikstad to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fredrikstad 40%, Ham-Kam 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fredrikstad's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Ham-Kam's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fredrikstad arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.