Fredrikstad 3-0 Brann – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Fredrikstad at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Fredrikstad face Brann.

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Full Analysis

Fredrikstad Stadion plays host to Fredrikstad versus Brann in Eliteserien (matchday 1). Kick-off: Saturday 29 March 2025 at 17:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Fredrikstad have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

Fredrikstad's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Brann (all games): 7W 2D 1L across their last 10 — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Brann's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 road games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

A near-identical PPG reading — 2.00 for Fredrikstad, 2.30 for Brann — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Fredrikstad, 1 for Brann and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 18 Aug 2024, ended Fredrikstad 0–4 Brann — a Brann win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Fredrikstad half-time and goal-timing data (last 30 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

Brann half-time and goal-timing data (last 30 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fredrikstad 40% versus Brann 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fredrikstad 40% | Brann 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.41 xG and Brann 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 0.967 / defence 0.942 | Brann attack 1.090 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.528 / away 1.313. Data: built from Fredrikstad's last 30 games and Brann's last 30. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 39% | Draw 26% | Brann 36%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 2.59 | Draw 3.92 | Brann 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Fredrikstad at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fredrikstad if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Fredrikstad's last 10 home games and Brann's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Fredrikstad 40% (last 10 home games) | Brann 70% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Fredrikstad 30 games, Brann 30) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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