Fredrikstad 0-2 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fredrikstad vs Bodo/Glimt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Nye Fredrikstad Stadion plays host to Fredrikstad versus Bodo/Glimt in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Monday 1 April 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Bodo/Glimt have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Bodo/Glimt have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fredrikstad 1.52 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fredrikstad attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.174 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.791 / away 1.451. Data: 0 Fredrikstad games / 30 Bodo/Glimt games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Fredrikstad 30% | Draw 22% | Bodo/Glimt 48%. Fair-value odds: Fredrikstad 3.33 | Draw 4.55 | Bodo/Glimt 2.08. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.96) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.48 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fredrikstad vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Nye Fredrikstad Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 1 Apr 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fredrikstad 30% | Draw 22% | Bodo/Glimt 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 67% | xG Fredrikstad 1.52 / Bodo/Glimt 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: Fredrikstad attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.174 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.791 / away 1.451 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Fredrikstad xG
Expected Goals
1.96
Bodo/Glimt xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fredrikstad vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Fredrikstad vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 13:30 on Monday 1 April 2024 at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion.
What was the final score in Fredrikstad vs Bodo/Glimt?
Fredrikstad 0 - 2 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Fredrikstad vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion.
What competition is Fredrikstad vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Fredrikstad vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Fredrikstad vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Fredrikstad a 30% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 48% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fredrikstad vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Fredrikstad and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Fredrikstad vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Bodo/Glimt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fredrikstad and Bodo/Glimt in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Bodo/Glimt away split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 2.60 / GA 1.80 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fredrikstad's attack at 0.85x the league average against Bodo/Glimt's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.17x) against Fredrikstad's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.96.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
30%
3.32
22%
4.58
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Fredrikstad xG
Total xG
3.48
1.96
Bodo/Glimt xG
3.32
30%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
14%
7.10
22%
4.57
Win to Nil
4%
23.59
11%
9.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fredrikstad vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Fredrikstad and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Fredrikstad and 1.96 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Fredrikstad vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fredrikstad
Pre-Season
Bodo/Glimt
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Bodo/Glimt go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 5-0 on 30 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fredrikstad have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Fredrikstad
1
Draws
4
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fredrikstad and Bodo/Glimt?
From 5 meetings on record, Fredrikstad have won 0, Bodo/Glimt have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fredrikstad and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 1-0 Fredrikstad.
Who has won more matches between Fredrikstad and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fredrikstad home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Bodo/Glimt cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Fredrikstad.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat Fredrikstad 0-2 at Nye Fredrikstad Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fredrikstad 1.52 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.96 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Fredrikstad fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fredrikstad attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.17 / defence 1.00, drawn from 0/30 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fredrikstad 30% | Draw 22% | Bodo/Glimt 48%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.