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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Brann cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Viking.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Brann beat Viking 3-1 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.49 xG and Viking 1.85 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Brann beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Viking landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.10 / defence 1.02 against Viking attack 1.41 / defence 0.90, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Brann 31% | Draw 23% | Viking 46%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Brann win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 64%, Viking 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Brann's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Viking's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Brann 1.95 PPG, Viking 2.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brann win broke the near-deadlock. Brann (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm. Viking (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights