🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Viking (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Brann face Viking.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Brann and Viking meet at Brann Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 13 July 2025 at 18:15 UTC.

Form

Brann (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Brann at Brann Stadion this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Viking have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Viking's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Viking are 0.80 PPG clear of Brann in recent Eliteserien fixtures (2.60 vs 1.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Brann register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Viking in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head ledger leans to Viking, who have claimed 5 wins from 7 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.

The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

It is worth noting that Viking have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.

Trading Data

Brann goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).

Viking goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 59% and Viking 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 64% | Viking 64%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.49 xG and Viking 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.101 / defence 1.016 | Viking attack 1.412 / defence 0.899. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.288. Viking have an above-average attack strength of 1.412 — the away xG of 1.85 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Brann games / 45 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Brann 31% | Draw 23% | Viking 46%. Fair-value odds: Brann 3.23 | Draw 4.35 | Viking 2.17. Viking hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Viking if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.34 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Brann 70% | Viking 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights