Brann 1-1 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brann at 48%, yet the head-to-head data favours Viking — this Brann vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Brann and Viking meet at Brann Stadion in Eliteserien (matchday 30). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 December 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Form
Brann (all games): 7W 1D 2L across their last 10 — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Brann at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Viking have collected 2.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.80 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Viking's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.20 PPG for Brann against 2.30 for Viking. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Brann's last 10 home games and Viking's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Brann's games and 80% of Viking's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Viking have the stronger record — 4 wins to Brann's 0, with 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 14 Apr 2024, ended Brann 1–1 Viking — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. Viking have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 2.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Brann goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Viking goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 58% and Viking 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 61% | Viking 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.84 xG and Viking 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.220 / defence 0.885 | Viking attack 1.254 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.494 / away 1.256. Viking have an above-average attack rating of 1.254, which lifts their away xG to 1.39. Data: built from Brann's last 59 games and Viking's last 59.
Result probabilities: Brann 48% | Draw 23% | Viking 29%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.08 | Draw 4.41 | Viking 3.43. Brann hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.84 / 1.39) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brann are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brann if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Brann's last 10 home games and Viking's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Brann 70% (last 10 home games) | Viking 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 30 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 December 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 48% | Draw 23% | Viking 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Brann 1.84 / Viking 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 1.220 / def 0.885 | Viking attack 1.254 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.494 / away 1.256 • Poisson stance: Brann (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Viking xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Brann vs Viking FAQs
What time does Brann vs Viking kick off?
Brann vs Viking kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Viking?
Brann 1 - 1 Viking.
Where is Brann vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Viking part of?
Brann vs Viking is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 30) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 48% chance of winning, Viking a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Brann and Viking will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Brann vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Brann's attack at 1.22x the league average against Viking's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Viking's attack (1.25x) against Brann's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from Brann's last 59 games and Viking's last 59 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
48%
2.08
23%
4.41
29%
3.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Brann xG
Total xG
3.24
1.39
Viking xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
3.43
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
16%
6.33
Win to Nil
12%
8.37
5%
21.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.1 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Brann vs Viking Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Brann and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Brann and 1.39 for Viking, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Brann's recent record stands at 36W 11D 12L from 59 games, a 2.02 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five.
Viking, meanwhile, have gone 34W 12D 13L across 59 games — 1.93 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.02 PPG for Brann against 1.93 for Viking. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Brann have managed 21W 4D 4L from their last 29 home games — 2.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Viking's away record stands at 14W 6D 9L across their last 29 away games, a 1.66 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brann come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brann are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 2.05 scored and 1.46 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Viking in 64%.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Current Season
Viking
Current Season
Brann (Home) vs Viking (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Brann
Current Season
Viking
Current Season
❓ Brann vs Viking Form FAQs
What form are Brann and Viking in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 36W 11D 12L in their last 59 games (2.02 PPG), while Viking have gone 34W 12D 13L in their last 59 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Viking away?
Brann's home record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 2.31 PPG; Viking away: 1.66 PPG.
Have Brann or Viking been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brann have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Viking in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was as recently as 9 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Viking have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won Viking 3-0 Brann on 5 Oct 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Brann
2
Draws
7
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Brann vs Viking H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Viking?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Brann have won 1, Viking have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Viking last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 October 2026: Brann 0-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brann 59%, Viking 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Brann and 62% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brann keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Brann vs Viking Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Brann and Viking matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Brann's games and 55% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Brann and Viking matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Brann's matches and 62% of Viking's.
Do Brann and Viking matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Brann's recent matches and 76% of Viking's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Brann and Viking share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann and Viking finished level at 1-1 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.84 xG and Viking 1.39 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Brann fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.22 / defence 0.89 against Viking attack 1.25 / defence 1.01, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 48% | Draw 23% | Viking 29%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 61%, Viking 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Viking's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brann 2.02 PPG, Viking 1.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Brann (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.