Brann 1-2 Tromso – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brann at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brann vs Tromso encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Tromso make the trip to Brann Stadion to face Brann in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Brann (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Eliteserien fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Brann Stadion, Brann have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Brann are significantly better at Brann Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Tromso's overall Eliteserien record this term: 7W 0D 3L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Tromso have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Tromso are 0.50 PPG clear of Brann in recent Eliteserien fixtures (2.10 vs 1.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Across 8 previous meetings, Brann are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 1, with 2 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Brann winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Brann and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Brann goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Tromso goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brann 62% versus Tromso 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 68% | Tromso 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.78 xG and Tromso 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.058 / defence 0.987 | Tromso attack 1.056 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.816 / away 1.272. Data: 31 Brann games / 31 Tromso games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Brann 48% | Draw 23% | Tromso 29%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Tromso 3.45. Brann hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.78 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
Brann dominate the H2H record, yet Tromso are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Brann at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Tromso (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brann if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Brann 70% | Tromso 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Tromso | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 48% | Draw 23% | Tromso 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 61% | xG Brann 1.78 / Tromso 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 1.058 / def 0.987 | Tromso attack 1.056 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.816 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Brann (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.78
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Tromso xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Tromso kick off?
Brann vs Tromso kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Tromso?
Brann 1 - 2 Tromso.
Where is Brann vs Tromso being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Tromso part of?
Brann vs Tromso is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Tromso?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 48% chance of winning, Tromso a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Tromso?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Brann and Tromso will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Tromso have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Tromso?
Record (8 meetings): Brann 5W | Draws 2 | Tromso 1W.
What form are Brann and Tromso in?
Brann (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Tromso (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Brann's attack rating (1.06) and Tromso's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.78 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Tromso's attack (1.06x) against Brann's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
48%
2.08
23%
4.31
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.78
Brann xG
Total xG
3.11
1.33
Tromso xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
17%
5.94
Win to Nil
13%
7.82
5%
20.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 10.6 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Tromso?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Brann and Tromso expected to score?
The model projects 1.78 expected goals for Brann and 1.33 for Tromso, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Tromso?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Brann's recent record stands at 34W 13D 13L from 60 games, a 1.92 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Tromso, meanwhile, have gone 27W 9D 24L across 60 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Brann by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Tromso heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Brann have managed 19W 6D 5L from 30 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Tromso's away record stands at 12W 4D 14L across 30 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brann come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Brann are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Tromso are on 1.40 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Tromso in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Current Season
Tromso
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Tromso in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 34W 13D 13L in their last 60 games (1.92 PPG), while Tromso have gone 27W 9D 24L in their last 60 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Tromso away?
Brann's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 2.10 PPG; Tromso away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Brann or Tromso been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brann have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Tromso in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. They last met on 29 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won 0-5 on 29 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Tromso — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Brann
2
Draws
2
Tromso
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Tromso?
From 10 meetings on record, Brann have won 6, Tromso have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Tromso last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2026, when Tromso 0-5 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Tromso?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Tromso are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brann 63%, Tromso 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Brann) and 47% (Tromso). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tromso in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Tromso away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Tromso?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Brann's recent matches and 43% of Tromso's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brann vs Tromso usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Brann's matches and 47% of Tromso's.
Do Brann and Tromso tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Tromso in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Tromso defy the odds to beat Brann 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tromso beat Brann 1-2 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.78 xG and Tromso 1.33 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.06 / defence 0.99 against Tromso attack 1.06 / defence 0.93, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Brann 48% | Draw 23% | Tromso 29%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Tromso win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 68%, Tromso 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Tromso's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Tromso winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Brann (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tromso (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.