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Stalemate at Brann's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Brann and Rosenborg finished level at 0-0 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.48 xG and Rosenborg 1.42 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Brann fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Rosenborg landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.18 / defence 0.94 against Rosenborg attack 1.13 / defence 0.78, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Brann 37% | Draw 28% | Rosenborg 35%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 60%, Rosenborg 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Brann's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Rosenborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.53. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Brann (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights