Brann 0-0 Rosenborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brann at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brann vs Rosenborg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rosenborg make the trip to Brann Stadion to face Brann in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 May 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Brann's overall Eliteserien record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Brann Stadion, Brann have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rosenborg (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
On the road, Rosenborg have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.30 vs 2.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Brann have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Rosenborg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Brann have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 6 meetings, with Rosenborg managing just 1 victories and 1 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 2–1 with Brann winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Brann and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Brann — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Rosenborg — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 58% and Rosenborg 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 60% | Rosenborg 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.48 xG and Rosenborg 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 1.179 / defence 0.938 | Rosenborg attack 1.127 / defence 0.783. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.345. Rosenborg's defence strength of 0.783 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 36 Brann games / 36 Rosenborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 37% | Draw 28% | Rosenborg 35%. Fair-value odds: Brann 2.70 | Draw 3.57 | Rosenborg 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brann are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brann if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Brann 70% | Rosenborg 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Rosenborg | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 11 May 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 37% | Draw 28% | Rosenborg 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Brann 1.48 / Rosenborg 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 1.179 / def 0.938 | Rosenborg attack 1.127 / def 0.783 | league avg home 1.606 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Brann (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Rosenborg xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Rosenborg kick off?
Brann vs Rosenborg kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 11 May 2025 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Rosenborg?
Brann 0 - 0 Rosenborg.
Where is Brann vs Rosenborg being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Rosenborg part of?
Brann vs Rosenborg is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Rosenborg?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 37% chance of winning, Rosenborg a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Rosenborg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Brann and Rosenborg will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Rosenborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Rosenborg?
Record (6 meetings): Brann 4W | Draws 1 | Rosenborg 1W.
What form are Brann and Rosenborg in?
Brann (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Rosenborg (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Brann's attack rating (1.18) and Rosenborg's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rosenborg's attack (1.13x) against Brann's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
37%
2.67
28%
3.59
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Brann xG
Total xG
2.91
1.42
Rosenborg xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
9%
11.07
8%
12.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.5 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Rosenborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Brann and Rosenborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Brann and 1.42 for Rosenborg, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Rosenborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Brann come into this having played 60 games, going 36W 12D 12L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-D.
On the other side, Rosenborg sit at 1.53 PPG from 60 outings (27W 11D 22L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five.
Brann carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Brann's home form reads 21W 5D 4L across 30 games on their own ground, a 2.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Rosenborg have taken 1.20 points per game from 30 outings (10W 6D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brann come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brann are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Rosenborg are on 1.63 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rosenborg in 62%.
Last 60 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Current Season
Rosenborg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Rosenborg in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 36W 12D 12L in their last 60 games (2.00 PPG), while Rosenborg have gone 27W 11D 22L in their last 60 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Rosenborg away?
Brann's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 2.27 PPG; Rosenborg away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Brann or Rosenborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brann have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Rosenborg in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Brann won 3-0 on 4 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rosenborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Brann
3
Draws
1
Rosenborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Rosenborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Brann have won 6, Rosenborg have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Rosenborg last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Brann 3-2 Rosenborg.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Rosenborg?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Rosenborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brann 60%, Rosenborg 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Brann and 70% for Rosenborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brann keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Rosenborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Rosenborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Brann's games and 63% of Rosenborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Rosenborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Brann's matches and 70% of Rosenborg's.
Do Brann and Rosenborg tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Rosenborg in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Brann's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann and Rosenborg finished level at 0-0 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.48 xG and Rosenborg 1.42 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Brann fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Rosenborg landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.18 / defence 0.94 against Rosenborg attack 1.13 / defence 0.78, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 37% | Draw 28% | Rosenborg 35%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 60%, Rosenborg 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Rosenborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.53. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Brann (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Rosenborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.