Brann 2-1 KFUM Oslo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brann at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brann vs KFUM Oslo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
KFUM Oslo make the trip to Brann Stadion to face Brann in Eliteserien (matchday 9). The match kicks off on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 13:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Brann have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Brann have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Brann are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
KFUM Oslo's record over their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
On the road, KFUM Oslo have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Brann. A 0.80 PPG lead over KFUM Oslo (1.60 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 9 Nov 2025, ended Brann 1–1 KFUM Oslo — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Brann goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
KFUM Oslo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Brann 62% and KFUM Oslo 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 68% | KFUM Oslo 47%). Note also that KFUM Oslo surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Brann recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 2.12 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.961 / defence 1.044 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.982 / defence 1.326. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.125. KFUM Oslo's defence rating of 1.326 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Brann's projected output up. Data: built from Brann's last 38 games and KFUM Oslo's last 38.
Result probabilities: Brann 59% | Draw 21% | KFUM Oslo 20%. Fair-value odds: Brann 1.68 | Draw 4.87 | KFUM Oslo 4.98. The model has a clear lean to Brann (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (2.12 / 1.15) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Brann as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Brann's last 10 home games and KFUM Oslo's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Brann 70% (last 10 home games) | KFUM Oslo 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs KFUM Oslo | Competition: Eliteserien, matchday 9 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 59% | Draw 21% | KFUM Oslo 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 60% (No 40%) | xG Brann 2.12 / KFUM Oslo 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.961 / def 1.044 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.982 / def 1.326 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: Brann (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.15
KFUM Oslo xG
60%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Brann vs KFUM Oslo FAQs
What time does Brann vs KFUM Oslo kick off?
Brann vs KFUM Oslo kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs KFUM Oslo?
Brann 2 - 1 KFUM Oslo.
Where is Brann vs KFUM Oslo being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs KFUM Oslo part of?
Brann vs KFUM Oslo is a Eliteserien fixture (matchday 9) (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs KFUM Oslo?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 59% chance of winning, KFUM Oslo a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Brann the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs KFUM Oslo?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Brann and KFUM Oslo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Brann vs KFUM Oslo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Brann's attack rating (0.96) and KFUM Oslo's defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 2.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — KFUM Oslo's attack (0.98x) against Brann's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from Brann's last 38 games and KFUM Oslo's last 38 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Brann Win
59%
1.68
21%
4.87
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Brann xG
Total xG
3.27
1.15
KFUM Oslo xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
12%
8.30
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
2%
41.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Brann vs KFUM Oslo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs KFUM Oslo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Brann and KFUM Oslo expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Brann and 1.15 for KFUM Oslo, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs KFUM Oslo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Brann come into this having played 60 games, going 34W 13D 13L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, KFUM Oslo sit at 1.20 PPG from 60 outings (17W 21D 22L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Brann carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.72 PPG clear of KFUM Oslo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Brann's home form reads 19W 6D 5L across their last 30 home games, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, KFUM Oslo have taken 1.30 points per game from their last 30 away games (10W 9D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brann come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brann are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; KFUM Oslo are on 1.28 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Brann have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Current Season
KFUM Oslo
Current Season
Brann (Home) vs KFUM Oslo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Brann
Current Season
KFUM Oslo
Current Season
❓ Brann vs KFUM Oslo Form FAQs
What form are Brann and KFUM Oslo in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 34W 13D 13L in their last 60 games (1.92 PPG), while KFUM Oslo have gone 17W 21D 22L in their last 60 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or KFUM Oslo away?
Brann's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 2.10 PPG; KFUM Oslo away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eliteserien. The most recent was on 16 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against KFUM Oslo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Brann
2
Draws
1
KFUM Oslo
Recent Meetings
❓ Brann vs KFUM Oslo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and KFUM Oslo?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Brann have won 2, KFUM Oslo have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brann and KFUM Oslo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 May 2026: Brann 2-1 KFUM Oslo.
Who has won more matches between Brann and KFUM Oslo?
Brann have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
KFUM Oslo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brann 63%, KFUM Oslo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Brann) and 40% (KFUM Oslo).
On the defensive side: KFUM Oslo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / KFUM Oslo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Brann vs KFUM Oslo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Brann and KFUM Oslo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Brann's games and 50% of KFUM Oslo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Brann and KFUM Oslo matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Brann's recent games and 40% of KFUM Oslo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brann and KFUM Oslo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Brann's recent matches and 63% of KFUM Oslo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Brann edge out KFUM Oslo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat KFUM Oslo 2-1 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 2.12 xG and KFUM Oslo 1.15 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.96 / defence 1.04 against KFUM Oslo attack 0.98 / defence 1.33, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 59% | Draw 21% | KFUM Oslo 20%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 68%, KFUM Oslo 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
KFUM Oslo's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.20. That form edge translated into the three points. KFUM Oslo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.