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Dominant Brann run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Haugesund.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Brann beat Haugesund 4-1 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 2.14 xG and Haugesund 0.80 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Brann beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.04 / defence 0.94 against Haugesund attack 0.64 / defence 1.20, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Brann 68% | Draw 20% | Haugesund 13%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 68%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 66%, Haugesund 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Brann's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Haugesund's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 0.70. That form edge translated into the three points. Brann (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.85 average — above their attacking norm. Haugesund (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights