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Brann cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Ham-Kam.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Brann beat Ham-Kam 3-1 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.74 xG and Ham-Kam 1.15 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Brann beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 1.07 / defence 0.94 against Ham-Kam attack 0.90 / defence 0.92, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Brann 51% | Draw 24% | Ham-Kam 25%, with Brann to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 68%, Ham-Kam 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Brann's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Ham-Kam's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Brann arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.19. That form edge translated into the three points. Brann (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights