Brann 4-1 Bodo/Glimt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bodo/Glimt (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Brann face Bodo/Glimt.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Brann and Bodo/Glimt meet at Brann Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 September 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Brann's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Brann, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brann's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Brann Stadion this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Brann Stadion.
Bodo/Glimt (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Eliteserien outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Bodo/Glimt have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Bodo/Glimt arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 1.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Brann, 3 for Bodo/Glimt and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.5 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Jul 2024, ended 1–5 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Brann — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Bodo/Glimt — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brann 58% versus Bodo/Glimt 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brann 58% | Bodo/Glimt 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brann 1.08 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brann attack 0.918 / defence 0.947 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.119 / defence 0.764. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.253. Bodo/Glimt's defence strength of 0.764 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 52 Brann games / 52 Bodo/Glimt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brann 30% | Draw 27% | Bodo/Glimt 42%. Fair-value odds: Brann 3.33 | Draw 3.70 | Bodo/Glimt 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Brann 50% | Bodo/Glimt 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brann vs Bodo/Glimt | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Brann Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brann 30% | Draw 27% | Bodo/Glimt 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Brann 1.08 / Bodo/Glimt 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Brann attack 0.918 / def 0.947 | Bodo/Glimt attack 1.119 / def 0.764 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Brann xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Bodo/Glimt xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brann vs Bodo/Glimt kick off?
Brann vs Bodo/Glimt kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Brann Stadion.
What was the final score in Brann vs Bodo/Glimt?
Brann 4 - 1 Bodo/Glimt.
Where is Brann vs Bodo/Glimt being played?
The match is being played at Brann Stadion.
What competition is Brann vs Bodo/Glimt part of?
Brann vs Bodo/Glimt is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Brann vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our statistical model gives Brann a 30% chance of winning, Bodo/Glimt a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brann vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Brann and Bodo/Glimt will score (BTTS).
Will Brann vs Bodo/Glimt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Bodo/Glimt?
Record (6 meetings): Brann 1W | Draws 2 | Bodo/Glimt 3W.
What form are Brann and Bodo/Glimt in?
Brann (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Brann's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Bodo/Glimt's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — Bodo/Glimt's attack (1.12x) against Brann's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
30%
3.29
27%
3.66
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Brann xG
Total xG
2.41
1.33
Bodo/Glimt xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
8%
12.40
14%
7.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 11.9 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brann vs Bodo/Glimt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Brann and Bodo/Glimt expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Brann and 1.33 for Bodo/Glimt, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Brann vs Bodo/Glimt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Brann come into this having played 52 games, going 30W 11D 11L for 1.94 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Brann is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bodo/Glimt sit at 2.31 PPG from 52 outings (37W 9D 6L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.94 PPG for Brann against 2.31 for Bodo/Glimt. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Brann's home form reads 18W 4D 4L across 26 games on their own ground, a 2.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Bodo/Glimt have taken 2.12 points per game from 26 outings (17W 4D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Brann are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Bodo/Glimt are on 2.50 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Bodo/Glimt in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brann
Blended
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brann and Bodo/Glimt in coming into this match?
Brann have gone 30W 11D 11L in their last 52 games (1.94 PPG), while Bodo/Glimt have gone 37W 9D 6L in their last 52 (2.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brann at home or Bodo/Glimt away?
Brann's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brann at home: 2.23 PPG; Bodo/Glimt away: 2.12 PPG.
Have Brann or Bodo/Glimt been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brann have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Bodo/Glimt in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 5-1 on 7 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Brann have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bodo/Glimt — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Brann
2
Draws
6
Bodo/Glimt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brann and Bodo/Glimt?
From 10 meetings on record, Brann have won 2, Bodo/Glimt have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brann and Bodo/Glimt last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Bodo/Glimt 3-1 Brann.
Who has won more matches between Brann and Bodo/Glimt?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Brann are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brann 58%, Bodo/Glimt 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Brann and 62% for Bodo/Glimt. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Brann keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Bodo/Glimt in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brann home games / Bodo/Glimt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brann play Bodo/Glimt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Brann's games and 62% of Bodo/Glimt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brann vs Bodo/Glimt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Brann's matches and 62% of Bodo/Glimt's.
Do Brann and Bodo/Glimt tend to score early?
Brann have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Bodo/Glimt in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Brann run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Bodo/Glimt.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brann beat Bodo/Glimt 4-1 at Brann Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brann 1.08 xG and Bodo/Glimt 1.33 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Brann beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brann attack 0.92 / defence 0.95 against Bodo/Glimt attack 1.12 / defence 0.76, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brann 30% | Draw 27% | Bodo/Glimt 42%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Brann win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brann 58%, Bodo/Glimt 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brann's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brann 1.94 PPG, Bodo/Glimt 2.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brann win broke the near-deadlock. Brann (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.