Ham-Kam 5-0 Lillestrom – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ham-Kam at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ham-Kam and Lillestrom meet at Briskeby Arena in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 September 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Ham-Kam's overall Eliteserien record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ham-Kam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ham-Kam have posted 2W 4D 4L at Briskeby Arena — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Briskeby Arena this season.
Lillestrom have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lillestrom, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lillestrom away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Ham-Kam. A 1.00 PPG lead over Lillestrom (1.50 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ham-Kam lead 0W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Ham-Kam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Lillestrom goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ham-Kam 44% versus Lillestrom 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ham-Kam 52% | Lillestrom 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ham-Kam 1.53 xG and Lillestrom 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ham-Kam attack 0.801 / defence 0.945 | Lillestrom attack 0.836 / defence 1.262. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.263. Lillestrom bring a strong defensive rating of 1.262 — this is suppressing Ham-Kam's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Ham-Kam games / 52 Lillestrom games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ham-Kam 50% | Draw 26% | Lillestrom 25%. Fair-value odds: Ham-Kam 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Lillestrom 4.00. Ham-Kam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Lillestrom lead the H2H ledger, but Ham-Kam carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ham-Kam at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ham-Kam if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Ham-Kam 40% | Lillestrom 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Briskeby Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ham-Kam 50% | Draw 26% | Lillestrom 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Ham-Kam 1.53 / Lillestrom 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Ham-Kam attack 0.801 / def 0.945 | Lillestrom attack 0.836 / def 1.262 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.263 • Poisson stance: Ham-Kam (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Ham-Kam xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Lillestrom xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom kick off?
Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Briskeby Arena.
What was the final score in Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom?
Ham-Kam 5 - 0 Lillestrom.
Where is Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom being played?
The match is being played at Briskeby Arena.
What competition is Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom part of?
Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom?
Our statistical model gives Ham-Kam a 50% chance of winning, Lillestrom a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ham-Kam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Ham-Kam and Lillestrom will score (BTTS).
Will Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Lillestrom?
Record (5 meetings): Ham-Kam 0W | Draws 3 | Lillestrom 2W.
What form are Ham-Kam and Lillestrom in?
Ham-Kam (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Lillestrom (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ham-Kam's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Lillestrom's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. Flip it around — Lillestrom's attack (0.84x) against Ham-Kam's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ham-Kam Win
50%
2.02
26%
3.89
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Ham-Kam xG
Total xG
2.53
1.00
Lillestrom xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
18%
5.47
5%
18.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.2 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Ham-Kam and Lillestrom expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Ham-Kam and 1.00 for Lillestrom, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ham-Kam come into this having played 52 games, going 16W 11D 25L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L. The sample for Ham-Kam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lillestrom sit at 1.23 PPG from 52 outings (19W 7D 26L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Lillestrom is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Ham-Kam against 1.23 for Lillestrom. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Ham-Kam's home form reads 8W 7D 10L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Lillestrom have taken 1.08 points per game from 25 outings (8W 3D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
Ham-Kam are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Lillestrom are on 1.42 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ham-Kam
Blended
Lillestrom
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ham-Kam and Lillestrom in coming into this match?
Ham-Kam have gone 16W 11D 25L in their last 52 games (1.13 PPG), while Lillestrom have gone 19W 7D 26L in their last 52 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ham-Kam at home or Lillestrom away?
Ham-Kam's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ham-Kam at home: 1.24 PPG; Lillestrom away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Ham-Kam have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ham-Kam won 5-0 on 21 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ham-Kam have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lillestrom — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Ham-Kam
3
Draws
2
Lillestrom
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ham-Kam and Lillestrom?
From 7 meetings on record, Ham-Kam have won 2, Lillestrom have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ham-Kam and Lillestrom last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Ham-Kam 2-0 Lillestrom.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ham-Kam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Lillestrom are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ham-Kam 36%, Lillestrom 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Ham-Kam) and 60% (Lillestrom).
On the defensive side: Ham-Kam keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Ham-Kam have failed to score in 40% of games; Lillestrom in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ham-Kam home games / Lillestrom away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ham-Kam play Lillestrom?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Ham-Kam's recent matches and 52% of Lillestrom's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ham-Kam vs Lillestrom usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Ham-Kam's recent games and 60% of Lillestrom's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ham-Kam and Lillestrom tend to score early?
Ham-Kam have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Lillestrom in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ham-Kam run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Lillestrom.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ham-Kam beat Lillestrom 5-0 at Briskeby Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ham-Kam 1.53 xG and Lillestrom 1.00 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Ham-Kam beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lillestrom landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ham-Kam attack 0.80 / defence 0.94 against Lillestrom attack 0.84 / defence 1.26, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ham-Kam 50% | Draw 26% | Lillestrom 25%, with Ham-Kam to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ham-Kam 52%, Lillestrom 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ham-Kam's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Lillestrom's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ham-Kam 1.13 PPG, Lillestrom 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ham-Kam win broke the near-deadlock. Ham-Kam (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Lillestrom (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.