Bodo/Glimt 6-1 ODD Ballklubb – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eliteserien clash, Regular Season - 17 as Bodo/Glimt welcome ODD Ballklubb to Aspmyra Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 September 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Bodo/Glimt have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 3.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Bodo/Glimt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bodo/Glimt at Aspmyra Stadion this season: 7W 0D 0L from 7 home games — 3.00 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.86 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
ODD Ballklubb — All Games: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Eliteserien fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for ODD Ballklubb, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, ODD Ballklubb have gone 4W 0D 3L from 7 away fixtures this term (1.71 PPG). Away from home they average 1.43 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 14% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.71 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bodo/Glimt at 2.60 PPG versus ODD Ballklubb's 2.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Bodo/Glimt, 0 for ODD Ballklubb and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Jul 2020, ended 4–0 with Bodo/Glimt winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bodo/Glimt in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 75%.
ODD Ballklubb in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bodo/Glimt 75% versus ODD Ballklubb 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bodo/Glimt 100% | ODD Ballklubb 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 2.11 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.679 / defence 0.940 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.841 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.443. Bodo/Glimt carry an above-average attack strength of 1.679 — their λ of 2.11 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 16 Bodo/Glimt games / 16 ODD Ballklubb games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 60% | Draw 21% | ODD Ballklubb 20%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | ODD Ballklubb 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Bodo/Glimt (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.11 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bodo/Glimt as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.25 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Bodo/Glimt 71% | ODD Ballklubb 14%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Sep 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 60% | Draw 21% | ODD Ballklubb 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 60% | xG Bodo/Glimt 2.11 / ODD Ballklubb 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.679 / def 0.940 | ODD Ballklubb attack 0.841 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.443 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.11
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
1.14
ODD Ballklubb xG
60%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 13 September 2020 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb?
Bodo/Glimt 6 - 1 ODD Ballklubb.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 60% chance of winning, ODD Ballklubb a 20% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb?
Record (1 meetings): Bodo/Glimt 1W | Draws 0 | ODD Ballklubb 0W.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. ODD Ballklubb (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bodo/Glimt's attacking strength (1.68x league average) is weighed against ODD Ballklubb's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.11. The same calculation in reverse, ODD Ballklubb's attack versus Bodo/Glimt's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
60%
1.68
21%
4.87
20%
5.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.11
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
3.25
1.14
ODD Ballklubb xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
5.04
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
32%
3.13
12%
8.26
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
2%
41.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb expected to score?
The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 1.14 for ODD Ballklubb, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bodo/Glimt come into this having played 16 games, going 14W 2D 0L for 2.75 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Bodo/Glimt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, ODD Ballklubb sit at 1.94 PPG from 16 outings (10W 1D 5L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for ODD Ballklubb is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bodo/Glimt carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.81 PPG clear of ODD Ballklubb — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Bodo/Glimt's home form reads 7W 0D 0L across 7 games on their own ground, a 3.00 PPG return.
Away from home, ODD Ballklubb have taken 1.71 points per game from 7 outings (4W 0D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bodo/Glimt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bodo/Glimt are averaging 3.50 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; ODD Ballklubb are on 1.81 scored and 1.12 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Bodo/Glimt have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Blended
ODD Ballklubb
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb in coming into this match?
Bodo/Glimt have gone 14W 2D 0L in their last 16 games (2.75 PPG), while ODD Ballklubb have gone 10W 1D 5L in their last 16 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bodo/Glimt at home or ODD Ballklubb away?
Bodo/Glimt's home record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bodo/Glimt at home: 3.00 PPG; ODD Ballklubb away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Bodo/Glimt or ODD Ballklubb been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bodo/Glimt have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, ODD Ballklubb in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 November 2024, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bodo/Glimt have taken the last 5 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2022, when Bodo/Glimt won 7-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bodo/Glimt's record when hosting ODD Ballklubb specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Bodo/Glimt
1
Draws
2
ODD Ballklubb
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb?
From 10 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 7, ODD Ballklubb have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2024, when ODD Ballklubb 0-2 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bodo/Glimt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 71% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
ODD Ballklubb see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bodo/Glimt 71%, ODD Ballklubb 14% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Bodo/Glimt and 29% for ODD Ballklubb. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 71% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: ODD Ballklubb in 43%; ODD Ballklubb in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / ODD Ballklubb away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bodo/Glimt play ODD Ballklubb?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Bodo/Glimt's recent matches and 14% of ODD Ballklubb's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bodo/Glimt vs ODD Ballklubb usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Bodo/Glimt's matches and 29% of ODD Ballklubb's.
Do Bodo/Glimt and ODD Ballklubb tend to score early?
Bodo/Glimt have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, ODD Ballklubb in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bodo/Glimt run riot with a 6-1 hammering of ODD Ballklubb.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bodo/Glimt beat ODD Ballklubb 6-1 at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 2.11 xG and ODD Ballklubb 1.14 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Bodo/Glimt beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.68 / defence 0.94 against ODD Ballklubb attack 0.84 / defence 0.91, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 60% | Draw 21% | ODD Ballklubb 20%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 78% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bodo/Glimt 100%, ODD Ballklubb 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bodo/Glimt's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
ODD Ballklubb's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bodo/Glimt arrived the stronger side — 2.75 PPG against 1.94. Form held, and they took the win. Bodo/Glimt (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 3.86 average — above their attacking norm. ODD Ballklubb (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.