Kristiansund BK 3-5 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kristiansund BK at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kristiansund BK vs Viking fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kristiansund BK host Viking at Kristiansund Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 12 September 2020 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kristiansund BK stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Kristiansund BK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kristiansund BK's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 1L across 7 games at Kristiansund Stadion this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.86 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eliteserien games this season, Viking have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eliteserien this season, Viking have posted 2W 2D 4L from 8 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Kristiansund BK 1.70 PPG, Viking 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Kristiansund BK in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Viking in-play and half-time data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kristiansund BK 81% and Viking 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Kristiansund BK 75% | Viking 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kristiansund BK 2.20 xG and Viking 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kristiansund BK attack 1.250 / defence 1.178 | Viking attack 0.714 / defence 1.290. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.399. Viking bring a strong defensive rating of 1.290 — this is suppressing Kristiansund BK's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Kristiansund BK games / 16 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 61% | Draw 20% | Viking 20%. Fair-value odds: Kristiansund BK 1.64 | Draw 5.00 | Viking 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Kristiansund BK (61%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.38. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.38 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.20 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kristiansund BK at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.38 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Kristiansund BK 86% | Viking 38% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kristiansund BK vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Kristiansund Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Sep 2020, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kristiansund BK 61% | Draw 20% | Viking 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 61% | xG Kristiansund BK 2.20 / Viking 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Kristiansund BK attack 1.250 / def 1.178 | Viking attack 0.714 / def 1.290 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Kristiansund BK (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
Kristiansund BK xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Viking xG
61%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kristiansund BK vs Viking kick off?
Kristiansund BK vs Viking kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 12 September 2020 at Kristiansund Stadion.
What was the final score in Kristiansund BK vs Viking?
Kristiansund BK 3 - 5 Viking.
Where is Kristiansund BK vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Kristiansund Stadion.
What competition is Kristiansund BK vs Viking part of?
Kristiansund BK vs Viking is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Kristiansund BK vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Kristiansund BK a 61% chance of winning, Viking a 20% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Kristiansund BK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kristiansund BK vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Kristiansund BK and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Kristiansund BK vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Viking?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kristiansund BK and Viking in?
Kristiansund BK (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Viking (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kristiansund BK's attack at 1.25x the league average against Viking's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 2.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Viking's attack versus Kristiansund BK's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Kristiansund BK Win
61%
1.65
20%
5.02
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
2 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
Kristiansund BK xG
Total xG
3.38
1.18
Viking xG
1.65
61%
Home win
5.02
20%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
11%
9.01
Win to Nil
19%
5.36
2%
46.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 8.9 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kristiansund BK vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are Kristiansund BK and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Kristiansund BK and 1.18 for Viking, a combined total of 3.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Kristiansund BK vs Viking?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Kristiansund BK come into this having played 16 games, going 7W 6D 3L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Kristiansund BK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Viking sit at 1.19 PPG from 16 outings (5W 4D 7L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kristiansund BK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Viking — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Kristiansund BK's home form reads 4W 2D 1L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Viking have taken 1.14 points per game from 7 outings (2W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kristiansund BK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kristiansund BK are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 1.50 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kristiansund BK have seen both teams score in 81% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kristiansund BK
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kristiansund BK and Viking in coming into this match?
Kristiansund BK have gone 7W 6D 3L in their last 16 games (1.69 PPG), while Viking have gone 5W 4D 7L in their last 16 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kristiansund BK at home or Viking away?
Kristiansund BK's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kristiansund BK at home: 2.00 PPG; Viking away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Viking go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Kristiansund BK's record when hosting Viking specifically: 1W 0D 5L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Kristiansund BK
0
Draws
9
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kristiansund BK and Viking?
From 10 meetings on record, Kristiansund BK have won 1, Viking have won 9, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kristiansund BK and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Kristiansund BK 1-2 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Kristiansund BK and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kristiansund BK see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kristiansund BK 86%, Viking 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Kristiansund BK and 57% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 71% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Viking in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kristiansund BK home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kristiansund BK play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Kristiansund BK's games and 43% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kristiansund BK vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Kristiansund BK's matches and 57% of Viking's.
Do Kristiansund BK and Viking tend to score early?
Kristiansund BK have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Viking in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Viking cruise to a comfortable 3-5 victory over Kristiansund BK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Viking beat Kristiansund BK 3-5 at Kristiansund Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eliteserien. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kristiansund BK 2.20 xG and Viking 1.18 xG, a combined 3.38. The scoreboard read 3-5 for 8 actual goals. Kristiansund BK beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Viking outscored their 1.18 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kristiansund BK attack 1.25 / defence 1.18 against Viking attack 0.71 / defence 1.29, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kristiansund BK 61% | Draw 20% | Viking 20%, with Kristiansund BK to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Viking win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 8, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kristiansund BK 75%, Viking 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kristiansund BK's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did.
Viking's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Kristiansund BK arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with Viking winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kristiansund BK (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Viking (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.