Bodo/Glimt 2-2 KFUM Oslo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bodo/Glimt at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bodo/Glimt and KFUM Oslo meet at Aspmyra Stadion in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Friday 24 May 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bodo/Glimt's overall Eliteserien record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bodo/Glimt at Aspmyra Stadion this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bodo/Glimt 1.32 xG and KFUM Oslo 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.209 / defence 0.608 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.962 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.530. Bodo/Glimt's defence rating of 0.608 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 Bodo/Glimt games / 9 KFUM Oslo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 47% | Draw 28% | KFUM Oslo 25%. Fair-value odds: Bodo/Glimt 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | KFUM Oslo 4.00. Bodo/Glimt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bodo/Glimt are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bodo/Glimt if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Aspmyra Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 24 May 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bodo/Glimt 47% | Draw 28% | KFUM Oslo 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Bodo/Glimt 1.32 / KFUM Oslo 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Bodo/Glimt attack 1.209 / def 0.608 | KFUM Oslo attack 0.962 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.530 • Poisson stance: Bodo/Glimt (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Bodo/Glimt xG
Expected Goals
0.90
KFUM Oslo xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo kick off?
Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 24 May 2024 at Aspmyra Stadion.
What was the final score in Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo?
Bodo/Glimt 2 - 2 KFUM Oslo.
Where is Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo being played?
The match is being played at Aspmyra Stadion.
What competition is Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo part of?
Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo?
Our statistical model gives Bodo/Glimt a 47% chance of winning, KFUM Oslo a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bodo/Glimt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Bodo/Glimt and KFUM Oslo will score (BTTS).
Will Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and KFUM Oslo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bodo/Glimt and KFUM Oslo in?
Bodo/Glimt (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Bodo/Glimt home split: 2.50 PPG from 10 | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bodo/Glimt's attack at 1.21x the league average against KFUM Oslo's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — KFUM Oslo's attack (0.96x) against Bodo/Glimt's defence (0.61x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 39/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bodo/Glimt Win
47%
2.15
28%
3.56
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Bodo/Glimt xG
Total xG
2.22
0.90
KFUM Oslo xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
27%
3.76
Win to Nil
19%
5.26
7%
14.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 9.7 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 12.9 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Bodo/Glimt and KFUM Oslo expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Bodo/Glimt and 0.90 for KFUM Oslo, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Bodo/Glimt vs KFUM Oslo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bodo/Glimt
Pre-Season
KFUM Oslo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Bodo/Glimt have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bodo/Glimt won 3-0 on 27 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bodo/Glimt have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against KFUM Oslo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Bodo/Glimt
2
Draws
0
KFUM Oslo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bodo/Glimt and KFUM Oslo?
From 5 meetings on record, Bodo/Glimt have won 3, KFUM Oslo have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bodo/Glimt and KFUM Oslo last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when KFUM Oslo 0-2 Bodo/Glimt.
Who has won more matches between Bodo/Glimt and KFUM Oslo?
Bodo/Glimt have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bodo/Glimt home games / KFUM Oslo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Bodo/Glimt and KFUM Oslo share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Aspmyra Stadion, Regular Season - 10, as Bodo/Glimt and KFUM Oslo drew 2-2 in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bodo/Glimt 1.32 xG and KFUM Oslo 0.90 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. KFUM Oslo outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bodo/Glimt attack 1.21 / defence 0.61 against KFUM Oslo attack 0.96 / defence 0.84, drawn from 39/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bodo/Glimt 47% | Draw 28% | KFUM Oslo 25%, with Bodo/Glimt to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.