🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Sarpsborg 08 FF at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Valerenga fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Eliteserien encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Valerenga travel to Sarpsborg Stadion to take on Sarpsborg 08 FF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 April 2025, 16:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Eliteserien games this season, Sarpsborg 08 FF have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Sarpsborg 08 FF's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Sarpsborg Stadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Valerenga stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eliteserien matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Valerenga haven't played a Eliteserien game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Valerenga's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Sarpsborg 08 FF) versus 1.10 (Valerenga). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sarpsborg 08 FF register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Valerenga in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Sarpsborg 08 FF, 2 for Valerenga and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 3–2 with Sarpsborg 08 FF winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Sarpsborg 08 FF trading profile (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

Valerenga trading profile (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sarpsborg 08 FF 69% and Valerenga 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sarpsborg 08 FF 66% | Valerenga 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.78 xG and Valerenga 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 0.971 / defence 1.089 | Valerenga attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.595 / away 1.075. Data: 31 Sarpsborg 08 FF games / 1 Valerenga games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: Sarpsborg 08 FF 56% | Draw 23% | Valerenga 21%. Fair-value odds: Sarpsborg 08 FF 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Valerenga 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Sarpsborg 08 FF (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Sarpsborg 08 FF as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sarpsborg 08 FF 80% | Valerenga 60% BTTS from recent games.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights