Aalesund 1-1 Viking – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Viking (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Aalesund face Viking.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Color Line Stadion plays host to Aalesund versus Viking in Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 26 July 2026 at 18:15 UTC.
Current Form
Aalesund's overall Eliteserien record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Aalesund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Aalesund have posted 1W 4D 3L at Color Line Stadion — 0.88 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Viking have collected 2.70 PPG across 10 Eliteserien outings this season: 9W 0D 1L. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Viking, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Viking's away record: 8W 0D 2L from 10 road trips in Eliteserien this season (2.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Viking are the stronger side — 1.60 PPG clear of the hosts (2.70 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Aalesund have seen both teams score in 88% of their games, Viking in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Viking hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.8 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2023, ended 0–4 with Viking winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Viking have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Aalesund — key trading statistics (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Viking — key trading statistics (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Aalesund 73% and Viking 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Aalesund 67% | Viking 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aalesund 1.22 xG and Viking 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aalesund attack 0.948 / defence 1.344 | Viking attack 1.078 / defence 0.758. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.224. Viking's defence strength of 0.758 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 13 Aalesund games / 43 Viking games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aalesund 26% | Draw 24% | Viking 50%. Fair-value odds: Aalesund 3.85 | Draw 4.17 | Viking 2.00. Viking hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Viking are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Viking if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.99 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Aalesund 88% | Viking 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aalesund vs Viking | Competition: Eliteserien, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Color Line Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jul 2026, 18:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aalesund 26% | Draw 24% | Viking 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Aalesund 1.22 / Viking 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Aalesund attack 0.948 / def 1.344 | Viking attack 1.078 / def 0.758 | league avg home 1.696 / away 1.224 • Poisson stance: Viking (50%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Aalesund xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Viking xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aalesund vs Viking kick off?
Aalesund vs Viking kicked off at 18:15 on Sunday 26 July 2026 at Color Line Stadion.
What was the final score in Aalesund vs Viking?
Aalesund 1 - 1 Viking.
Where is Aalesund vs Viking being played?
The match is being played at Color Line Stadion.
What competition is Aalesund vs Viking part of?
Aalesund vs Viking is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eliteserien (Norway).
Who is favourite to win Aalesund vs Viking?
Our statistical model gives Aalesund a 26% chance of winning, Viking a 50% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Viking the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aalesund vs Viking?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Aalesund and Viking will score (BTTS).
Will Aalesund vs Viking have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Viking?
Record (6 meetings): Aalesund 1W | Draws 1 | Viking 4W.
What form are Aalesund and Viking in?
Aalesund (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Viking (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Aalesund vs Viking?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Aalesund's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Viking's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — Viking's attack (1.08x) against Aalesund's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from 13/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Viking Win
26%
3.87
24%
4.15
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Aalesund xG
Total xG
2.99
1.77
Viking xG
3.87
26%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
17%
5.89
30%
3.38
Win to Nil
4%
22.77
15%
6.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.9 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.6 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aalesund vs Viking?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Aalesund and Viking expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Aalesund and 1.77 for Viking, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Aalesund vs Viking?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Aalesund's recent record stands at 3W 6D 6L from 15 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Aalesund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Viking, meanwhile, have gone 13W 0D 2L across 15 games — 2.60 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Viking is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Viking by 1.60 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Aalesund heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Aalesund have managed 1W 4D 3L from 8 games — 0.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Viking's away record stands at 6W 0D 2L across 8 trips, a 2.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Viking come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Aalesund are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; Viking are on 2.60 scored and 0.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Aalesund have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Viking in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Eliteserien
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aalesund
Blended
Viking
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aalesund and Viking in coming into this match?
Aalesund have gone 3W 6D 6L in their last 15 games (1.00 PPG), while Viking have gone 13W 0D 2L in their last 15 (2.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aalesund at home or Viking away?
Viking's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aalesund at home: 0.88 PPG; Viking away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Aalesund or Viking been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aalesund have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Viking in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eliteserien. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Viking won 0-4 on 26 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Aalesund have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Viking — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Aalesund
2
Draws
4
Viking
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aalesund and Viking?
From 7 meetings on record, Aalesund have won 1, Viking have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Aalesund and Viking last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Aalesund 1-1 Viking.
Who has won more matches between Aalesund and Viking?
Viking have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Aalesund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Viking are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 88% for Aalesund, 50% for Viking — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Aalesund and 50% for Viking. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Viking in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aalesund home games / Viking away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aalesund play Viking?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Aalesund's games and 50% of Viking's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Aalesund vs Viking usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Aalesund's matches and 50% of Viking's.
Do Aalesund and Viking tend to score early?
Aalesund have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Viking in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Aalesund and Viking share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aalesund and Viking finished level at 1-1 at Color Line Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eliteserien. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aalesund 1.22 xG and Viking 1.77 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aalesund attack 0.95 / defence 1.34 against Viking attack 1.08 / defence 0.76, drawn from 13/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aalesund 26% | Draw 24% | Viking 50%, with Viking to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aalesund 67%, Viking 73%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aalesund's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Viking's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Viking arrived the stronger side — 2.60 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Aalesund (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.