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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Utrecht edge out Willem II 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Utrecht beat Willem II 2-3 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.12 xG and Utrecht 2.20 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Willem II beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.75 / defence 1.26 against Utrecht attack 1.38 / defence 0.89, drawn from 24/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Willem II 18% | Draw 20% | Utrecht 62%, with Utrecht to win its most likely call at 62%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 48%, Utrecht 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Willem II's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Utrecht's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Willem II 1.65 PPG, Utrecht 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Utrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Willem II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights