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Eredivisie · Regular Season - 25

Kick-off

Sun 9 Mar 2025

11:15

Venue

Koning Willem II Stadion

Competition

Eredivisie

Netherlands

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Utrecht Win

18%

Willem II

5.56

20%

Draw

4.91

62%

Utrecht

1.62

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 2

9.8%

Away win

Most likely

1 – 1

8.9%

Draw

0 – 2

8.8%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.12

Willem II xG

Total xG

3.32

2.20

Utrecht xG

18%
20%
62%
Willem IIDrawUtrecht

5.56

18%

Home win

4.91

20%

Draw

1.62

62%

Away win

Goals Markets

84%

Over 1.5

1.19

16%

Under 1.5

6.25

64%

Over 2.5

1.56

36%

Under 2.5

2.78

42%

Over 3.5

2.38

58%

Under 3.5

1.72

24%

Over 4.5

4.17

76%

Under 4.5

1.32

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

60%

BTTS Yes

1.66

40%

BTTS No

2.51

Clean Sheet

11%

Willem II

9.05

33%

Utrecht

3.06

Win to Nil

2%

Willem II

50.37

20%

Utrecht

4.96

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 3.6 8.0 8.8 6.4 3.5 1.6
1 4.0 8.9 9.8 7.2 4.0 1.7
2 2.3 5.0 5.5 4.0 2.2 1.0
3 0.8 1.9 2.0 1.5 0.8 0.4
4 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1
5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.118
λ Away (xG) 2.203
Total xG 3.321
League avg home goals 1.670
League avg away goals 1.262
Willem II attack strength 0.750
Willem II defence strength 1.262
Utrecht attack strength 1.384
Utrecht defence strength 0.893
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 24 / 58