🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as PEC Zwolle edge out Willem II 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

PEC Zwolle beat Willem II 1-2 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 33, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.43 xG and PEC Zwolle 1.83 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.73 / defence 1.35 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.01 / defence 1.22, drawn from 32/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Willem II 29% | Draw 25% | PEC Zwolle 46%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 48%, PEC Zwolle 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Willem II's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

PEC Zwolle's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.08. Form was overturned, with PEC Zwolle winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights