🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Willem II run riot with a 4-1 hammering of NEC Nijmegen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Willem II beat NEC Nijmegen 4-1 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.12 xG and NEC Nijmegen 1.19 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Willem II beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.67 / defence 1.09 against NEC Nijmegen attack 0.85 / defence 0.98, drawn from 16/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Willem II 34% | Draw 28% | NEC Nijmegen 38%, with NEC Nijmegen to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Willem II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 49%, NEC Nijmegen 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Willem II's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

NEC Nijmegen's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.37. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm. NEC Nijmegen (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights