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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Groningen cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Willem II.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Groningen beat Willem II 1-3 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.50 xG and Groningen 0.82 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Groningen outscored their 0.82 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.76 / defence 1.06 against Groningen attack 0.58 / defence 1.18, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Willem II 53% | Draw 26% | Groningen 20%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Groningen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 45%, Groningen 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Willem II's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Groningen's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Willem II 1.72 PPG, Groningen 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Groningen win broke the near-deadlock. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights