Willem II 1-3 Groningen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Willem II at 53% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Willem II face Groningen.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Groningen travel to Koning Willem II Stadion to take on Willem II in Eredivisie (matchday 23). The game is scheduled for Saturday 15 February 2025 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Willem II have gone 2W 3D 5L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Willem II have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Groningen — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Groningen's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 2D 8L (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Willem II) versus 1.20 (Groningen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Willem II have won 1, Groningen 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.6 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 30 Nov 2024, ended Willem II 0–2 Groningen — a Groningen win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Willem II in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Groningen in-play and half-time data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Willem II 58% versus Groningen 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Willem II 45% | Groningen 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Willem II 1.50 xG and Groningen 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Willem II attack 0.757 / defence 1.060 | Groningen attack 0.577 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.340. Willem II's attack rating of 0.757 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.50. Groningen's attack rating of 0.577 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.82. Data: built from Willem II's last 22 games and Groningen's last 22.
Result probabilities: Willem II 53% | Draw 26% | Groningen 20%. Fair-value odds: Willem II 1.88 | Draw 3.81 | Groningen 4.89. Willem II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Willem II as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Willem II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Willem II 50% (last 10 home games) | Groningen 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Willem II vs Groningen | Competition: Eredivisie, matchday 23 | Venue: Koning Willem II Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 15 February 2025 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Willem II 53% | Draw 26% | Groningen 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Willem II 1.50 / Groningen 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Willem II attack 0.757 / def 1.060 | Groningen attack 0.577 / def 1.175 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.340 • Poisson stance: Willem II (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Willem II xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Groningen xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Willem II vs Groningen FAQs
What time does Willem II vs Groningen kick off?
Willem II vs Groningen kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What was the final score in Willem II vs Groningen?
Willem II 1 - 3 Groningen.
Where is Willem II vs Groningen being played?
The match is being played at Koning Willem II Stadion.
What competition is Willem II vs Groningen part of?
Willem II vs Groningen is a Eredivisie fixture (matchday 23) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Willem II vs Groningen?
Our statistical model gives Willem II a 53% chance of winning, Groningen a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Willem II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Willem II vs Groningen?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Willem II and Groningen will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Willem II vs Groningen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Willem II's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Groningen's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Groningen's attack versus Willem II's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Willem II's last 22 games and Groningen's last 22 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 0-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Willem II Win
53%
1.88
26%
3.81
20%
4.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Willem II xG
Total xG
2.32
0.82
Groningen xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
4.89
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
23%
4.26
5%
21.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.1 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Willem II vs Groningen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Willem II vs Groningen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Willem II and Groningen expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Willem II and 0.82 for Groningen, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Willem II vs Groningen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, Willem II have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 29W 16D 15L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Groningen's form line: 28W 15D 17L from 60 games, 1.65 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Willem II on 1.72 PPG, Groningen on 1.65. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Willem II have posted 1.90 PPG from their last 30 home games (17W 6D 7L).
On the road, Groningen have gone 11W 6D 13L from their last 30 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Willem II come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Willem II are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Groningen are on 1.50 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Groningen in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Willem II
Blended
Groningen
Blended
Willem II (Home) vs Groningen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Willem II
Blended
Groningen
Blended
❓ Willem II vs Groningen Form FAQs
What form are Willem II and Groningen in coming into this match?
Willem II have gone 29W 16D 15L in their last 60 games (1.72 PPG), while Groningen have gone 28W 15D 17L in their last 60 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Willem II at home or Groningen away?
Willem II's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Willem II at home: 1.90 PPG; Groningen away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Willem II or Groningen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Willem II have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Groningen in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from September 2021. They cover more than one competition — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie. The most recent in our data was on 15 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Groningen have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Willem II's record when hosting Groningen specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Willem II
2
Draws
3
Groningen
Recent Meetings
❓ Willem II vs Groningen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Willem II and Groningen?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Willem II have won 1, Groningen have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Willem II and Groningen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 February 2025: Willem II 1-3 Groningen.
Who has won more matches between Willem II and Groningen?
Groningen have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Willem II 63%, Groningen 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Willem II) and 50% (Groningen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Willem II home games / Groningen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Willem II vs Groningen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Willem II and Groningen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Willem II's games and 50% of Groningen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Willem II and Groningen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Willem II's matches and 50% of Groningen's.
Do Willem II and Groningen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Willem II's recent matches and 77% of Groningen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Groningen cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Willem II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Groningen beat Willem II 1-3 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.50 xG and Groningen 0.82 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Groningen outscored their 0.82 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.76 / defence 1.06 against Groningen attack 0.58 / defence 1.18, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Willem II 53% | Draw 26% | Groningen 20%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Groningen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 45%, Groningen 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Willem II's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Groningen's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Willem II 1.72 PPG, Groningen 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Groningen win broke the near-deadlock. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Groningen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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