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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Willem II and Feyenoord share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Willem II and Feyenoord finished level at 1-1 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.32 xG and Feyenoord 1.91 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Feyenoord landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.87 / defence 1.05 against Feyenoord attack 1.38 / defence 0.89, drawn from 18/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Willem II 26% | Draw 22% | Feyenoord 51%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 50%, Feyenoord 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Willem II's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Feyenoord's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Feyenoord (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.46 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights