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AZ Alkmaar cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Willem II.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

AZ Alkmaar beat Willem II 0-2 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.08 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.30 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Willem II fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.84 / defence 0.98 against AZ Alkmaar attack 0.97 / defence 0.76, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Willem II 31% | Draw 28% | AZ Alkmaar 42%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 48%, AZ Alkmaar 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Willem II's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Willem II 1.80 PPG, AZ Alkmaar 1.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AZ Alkmaar win broke the near-deadlock. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights