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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Almere City FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Willem II.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Almere City FC beat Willem II 0-2 at Koning Willem II Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Willem II 1.19 xG and Almere City FC 1.14 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Willem II fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Almere City FC outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Willem II attack 0.83 / defence 1.26 against Almere City FC attack 0.69 / defence 0.90, drawn from 26/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Willem II 37% | Draw 29% | Almere City FC 34%, with Willem II to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Almere City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Willem II 48%, Almere City FC 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Willem II's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Almere City FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Willem II arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with Almere City FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Willem II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Almere City FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights