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Waalwijk cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Heerenveen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Waalwijk beat Heerenveen 3-1 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 1.50 xG and Heerenveen 1.26 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Waalwijk beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.77 / defence 1.17 against Heerenveen attack 0.80 / defence 1.22, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 42% | Draw 28% | Heerenveen 31%, with Waalwijk to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 60%, Heerenveen 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Waalwijk's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Heerenveen's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Heerenveen arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.74. Form was overturned, with Waalwijk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights