Waalwijk vs Feyenoord – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out Waalwijk 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Feyenoord beat Waalwijk 2-3 at Mandemakers Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Waalwijk 0.95 xG and Feyenoord 2.54 xG, a combined 3.48. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Waalwijk beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waalwijk attack 0.74 / defence 1.29 against Feyenoord attack 1.55 / defence 0.76, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Waalwijk 12% | Draw 16% | Feyenoord 72%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 72%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 68%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waalwijk 58%, Feyenoord 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Waalwijk's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Feyenoord's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Waalwijk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Feyenoord (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights