Waalwijk vs Feyenoord – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Waalwijk's attack at 0.74x the league average against Feyenoord's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Feyenoord's attack (1.55x) against Waalwijk's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 2.54.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 1-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
12%
8.33
16%
6.14
72%
1.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 3
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Waalwijk xG
Total xG
3.48
2.54
Feyenoord xG
8.33
12%
Home win
6.14
16%
Draw
1.39
72%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
8%
12.62
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
1%
105.14
28%
3.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 7.8 | 9.9 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.7 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 2.5 |
| 2 | 1.4 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waalwijk vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are Waalwijk and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Waalwijk and 2.54 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 3.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Waalwijk vs Feyenoord?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.