Vitesse 0-1 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vitesse host AZ Alkmaar at GelreDome in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 3 March 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vitesse — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vitesse at GelreDome this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eredivisie games this season, AZ Alkmaar have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AZ Alkmaar's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. AZ Alkmaar are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Vitesse register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, AZ Alkmaar in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Vitesse, 2 for AZ Alkmaar and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Jan 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Vitesse in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
AZ Alkmaar in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vitesse 57% and AZ Alkmaar 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Vitesse 66% | AZ Alkmaar 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.17 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.891 / defence 1.081 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.251 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.233. AZ Alkmaar have an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — the away xG of 1.67 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 57 Vitesse games / 57 AZ Alkmaar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 24% | Draw 29% | AZ Alkmaar 47%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 4.17 | Draw 3.45 | AZ Alkmaar 2.13. AZ Alkmaar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AZ Alkmaar are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Vitesse 60% | AZ Alkmaar 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Friday 3 Mar 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 24% | Draw 29% | AZ Alkmaar 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Vitesse 1.17 / AZ Alkmaar 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.891 / def 1.081 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.251 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
1.67
AZ Alkmaar xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 March 2023 at GelreDome.
What was the final score in Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar?
Vitesse 0 - 1 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 24% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 47% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (5 meetings): Vitesse 1W | Draws 2 | AZ Alkmaar 2W.
What form are Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar in?
Vitesse (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Vitesse's attack rating (0.89) and AZ Alkmaar's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AZ Alkmaar's attack versus Vitesse's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
24%
4.13
29%
3.42
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Vitesse xG
Total xG
2.83
1.67
AZ Alkmaar xG
4.13
24%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
19%
5.30
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
5%
21.89
14%
6.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.8 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.7 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Vitesse and 1.67 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 61 outings, Vitesse have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 22W 14D 25L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AZ Alkmaar's form line: 34W 12D 15L from 61 games, 1.87 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-W. The sample for AZ Alkmaar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, AZ Alkmaar are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vitesse.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Vitesse have posted 1.23 PPG from 30 outings (10W 7D 13L).
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 15W 5D 10L from 30 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AZ Alkmaar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vitesse are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 2.03 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AZ Alkmaar in 74%.
Last 61 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Blended
AZ Alkmaar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 22W 14D 25L in their last 61 games (1.31 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 34W 12D 15L in their last 61 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
AZ Alkmaar's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.23 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
AZ Alkmaar go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2022, when AZ Alkmaar won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vitesse's record when hosting AZ Alkmaar specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Vitesse
2
Draws
5
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar?
From 8 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 1, AZ Alkmaar have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Vitesse.
Who has won more matches between Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Vitesse at 63%, AZ Alkmaar at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Vitesse and 73% for AZ Alkmaar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play AZ Alkmaar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Vitesse's games and 77% of AZ Alkmaar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitesse vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Vitesse's matches and 73% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do Vitesse and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AZ Alkmaar edge out Vitesse 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AZ Alkmaar beat Vitesse 0-1 at GelreDome, Regular Season - 24, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitesse 1.17 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.67 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Vitesse fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitesse attack 0.89 / defence 1.08 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.25 / defence 0.84, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitesse 24% | Draw 29% | AZ Alkmaar 47%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vitesse 66%, AZ Alkmaar 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vitesse's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, AZ Alkmaar arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.31. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Vitesse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.