Excelsior 1-4 Sparta Rotterdam – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sparta Rotterdam at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Excelsior and Sparta Rotterdam meet at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 March 2023 at 11:15 UTC.
Form
Excelsior (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Eredivisie fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior's home record at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Excelsior are significantly better at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Sparta Rotterdam have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sparta Rotterdam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Sparta Rotterdam are 0.70 PPG clear of Excelsior in recent Eredivisie fixtures (1.40 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Excelsior, 1 for Sparta Rotterdam and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Jan 2023, ended 0–1 with Sparta Rotterdam winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Excelsior — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Sparta Rotterdam — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 54% versus Sparta Rotterdam 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 63% | Sparta Rotterdam 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 0.87 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.653 / defence 1.209 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.888 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.558 / away 1.252. Excelsior's attack strength of 0.653 is below the league average — the 0.87 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 Excelsior games / 57 Sparta Rotterdam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 22% | Draw 32% | Sparta Rotterdam 46%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 4.55 | Draw 3.12 | Sparta Rotterdam 2.17. Sparta Rotterdam hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sparta Rotterdam at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sparta Rotterdam if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 40% | Sparta Rotterdam 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Mar 2023, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 22% | Draw 32% | Sparta Rotterdam 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Excelsior 0.87 / Sparta Rotterdam 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.653 / def 1.209 | Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.888 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.558 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Sparta Rotterdam (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Sparta Rotterdam xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam kick off?
Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 5 March 2023 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Excelsior 1 - 4 Sparta Rotterdam.
Where is Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam part of?
Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 22% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 46% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sparta Rotterdam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Excelsior and Sparta Rotterdam will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Sparta Rotterdam?
Record (1 meetings): Excelsior 0W | Draws 0 | Sparta Rotterdam 1W.
What form are Excelsior and Sparta Rotterdam in?
Excelsior (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Sparta Rotterdam (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Excelsior's attack at 0.65x the league average against Sparta Rotterdam's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sparta Rotterdam's attack (0.89x) against Excelsior's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 23/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sparta Rotterdam Win
22%
4.54
32%
3.08
46%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Excelsior xG
Total xG
2.22
1.34
Sparta Rotterdam xG
4.54
22%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.20
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
6%
17.39
19%
5.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 14.7 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Sparta Rotterdam expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.34 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, Excelsior have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 22W 13D 22L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sparta Rotterdam's form line: 18W 18D 21L from 57 games, 1.26 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-L. The sample for Sparta Rotterdam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Excelsior against 1.26 for Sparta Rotterdam. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Excelsior have posted 1.54 PPG from 28 outings (12W 7D 9L).
On the road, Sparta Rotterdam have gone 7W 9D 12L from 28 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Excelsior are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Sparta Rotterdam are on 1.09 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
Sparta Rotterdam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and Sparta Rotterdam in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 22W 13D 22L in their last 57 games (1.39 PPG), while Sparta Rotterdam have gone 18W 18D 21L in their last 57 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Sparta Rotterdam away?
Excelsior's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.54 PPG; Sparta Rotterdam away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sparta Rotterdam won 1-4 on 5 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sparta Rotterdam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Excelsior
0
Draws
4
Sparta Rotterdam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Sparta Rotterdam?
From 6 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 2, Sparta Rotterdam have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Sparta Rotterdam last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Sparta Rotterdam 2-3 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Sparta Rotterdam?
Sparta Rotterdam have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Sparta Rotterdam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 57%, Sparta Rotterdam 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Excelsior and 54% for Sparta Rotterdam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sparta Rotterdam in 36%; Sparta Rotterdam in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Sparta Rotterdam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play Sparta Rotterdam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Excelsior's recent matches and 36% of Sparta Rotterdam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Excelsior vs Sparta Rotterdam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Excelsior's matches and 54% of Sparta Rotterdam's.
Do Excelsior and Sparta Rotterdam tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Sparta Rotterdam in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sparta Rotterdam run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Excelsior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sparta Rotterdam beat Excelsior 1-4 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 0.87 xG and Sparta Rotterdam 1.34 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Sparta Rotterdam outscored their 1.34 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.65 / defence 1.21 against Sparta Rotterdam attack 0.89 / defence 0.86, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 22% | Draw 32% | Sparta Rotterdam 46%, with Sparta Rotterdam to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 63%, Sparta Rotterdam 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Sparta Rotterdam's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.39 PPG, Sparta Rotterdam 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sparta Rotterdam win broke the near-deadlock. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sparta Rotterdam (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.